Southampton’s final league position and points tally if Jesse Marsch repeats Leeds United effort

Jesse Marsch looks set for a swift return to Premier League management, with Southampton closing in.

Reports suggest the American has agreed a deal to take over from Nathan Jones at St Mary’s Stadium, returning to work just over a week after he got the sack at Leeds United. Southampton are currently bottom of the table and four points from safety, and last manager, Jones, was sacked after just three months in charge.

Southampton cannot afford to get their next appointment wrong, and look set to turn to a man with recent experience of putting together a late run to safety. Marsch joined Leeds on the last day of February last year, and went on to lead the Whites to safety with a final day win over Brentford.

From the time of his appointment to the end of the season, Marsch won four of his 12 Premier League games in charge, drawing three and losing five. So, what would that run of form mean to Southampton should he manage a repeat, or indeed something similar?

Southampton are set to appoint Marsch a little earlier than Leeds did last season, which means he will have 16 games to work with instead of 12. To get a better read, we can use percentages instead of actual points, as we already know Marsch won 33% of his games with Leeds last season, drawing 25% and losing 42%.

If Marsch managed the same return, he would bag Southampton five wins - rounding to the nearest whole number - while drawing four and losing seven. That would see the Saints secure 19 points, and if we add that to their current points total - 15 - we can predict the south coast club would end up with 34 points should Marsch oversee a similar run to last season.

Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight predict that the survival total for this season will be 34 points. Everton are predicted to suffer relegation in 18th spot with 33 points, while Bournemouth and Southampton are predicted to join them, with the Saints getting just 30 points.

The next team above Everton is predicted to be Nottingham Forest, with 38 points, and so Southampton would need 38 points and favourable goal difference to beat the drop, according to that model. Leeds, meanwhile, are so far predicted to beat the drop, with 38 points and a superior goal difference to Forest.