60-game Leeds United strength presents decisive in-game moment for Daniel Farke against new-look Millwall

Victory over Plymouth Argyle was a foregone conclusion by the time Brenden Aaronson made it 3-0 on 38 minutes, but the chance of a shock defeat was close to zero even sooner.

Leeds United were overwhelming favourites before a ball had been kicked but when Dan James inexplicably generated the power to beat Daniel Grimshaw on the half-hour mark, improbable became virtually impossible. Leeds were ahead, and they tend not to lose from there. Millwall rarely lose from there either, though, and so when the two meet in South East London on Wednesday evening, that opening goal might be more important than most.

Since taking charge at Elland Road last summer, Daniel Farke has not witnessed his side lose in the league after scoring the first goal. In fact, not since the 2018/19 play-off semi-final defeat at home to Derby County have Leeds lost a Championship game after opening the scoring.

Saturday’s 3-0 win over Plymouth was the 60th such game and a 54th win, with just six draws and 12 points dropped from a possible 180. Greater attacking focus means opening goals are becoming less important with every year but for Leeds, they are decisive.

“Credit to the boys, from the mental side and tactical point of view when you go into the lead. Our really good tactical behaviour and structure against the ball,” Farke told reporters of his side’s record on Tuesday, ahead of the trip to Millwall. “We know how to be compact, especially when the opponent take more risks.

“When there are moments we have to defend a bit deeper, we know what to do then. For a team that wants to win something, in an ideal world some silverware, you need this. The lads are normally excellent when we’re in the lead and we have players who can be dangerous on the counter-attack.”

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It seems the only time opening goals are less important is when they are scored by whoever is facing Leeds, who are well-versed in comebacks. That might not be so true come Wednesday though. Millwall are some way off that 60-game tally but 13 wins and three draws from their last 16 when scoring first is not to be sniffed at.

Millwall have not been the Millwall many expect this season, with a more expansive style producing more expected goals (xG) than every team in the league except Leeds and Middlesbrough. Only the aforementioned pair and Coventry have registered more shots on target and only Norwich City have a higher xG-per-shot average.

But Neil Harris’ side are also typically Millwall in other areas, namely their utilisation of set-pieces - 6.47xG being more than anyone else in the league from dead-ball situations - and their ability to defend a lead. Burnley were the latest to struggle on Sunday but they definitely won’t be the last.

“That first goal in the Championship is very important,” Harris told the South London Press of his own team’s impressive record. “The game is so tactical now that once you are in front you make it very difficult for teams to break you down. We know the importance of the first goal.”

Records are there to be broken and the irony of a comeback win will not be lost on anyone tomorrow, but Leeds and Millwall have enjoyed their respective runs by design. And that opener is likely to prove decisive again this evening.