Leeds United v Aston Villa predictions as pundits and supercomputer disagree

Leeds United are back in action this weekend when they face Aston Villa at home.

The Whites have been sidelined for the best part of a month due to postponements and the international break, but they finally return on Sunday with a clash with Villa.

It has been a solid start to the season from Jesse Marsch’s men, but here they face the added challenge of being out of action for so long.

Though, Aston Villa, who have made a disappointing start to the campaign, have issues of their own, with a number of injuries in camp.

The clash is set up to be an intriguing one, with the two sides harbouring similar ambitions for this season.

And perhaps unsurprisingly, pundits are predicting a close affair.

BBC pundit has predicted a 2-1 win for Leeds, while Paul Merson has tipped a 1-1 draw in his SportsKeeda column, reasoning: “Leeds are a bit dull at the moment, and this is a big game for them. If they lose this game, their good start goes out the window. Neither team has played particularly well so far this season.

“Aston Villa pulled off a big result against Southampton but if they lose here, they're back to square one. Their victory against Southampton was important, but the game was dire.

“If Steven Gerrard had lost that game, serious questions would've been asked. They did win, however, and fair play to them. They'll have to go and grind one out again this weekend.”

Elsewhere, Sky Sports’ Lewis Jones has backed a 2-0 win for the Whites, writing: “To win a game of football away from home in the Premier League if you are outside the 'big six' takes a lot of doing. It's a big achievement.

“Yes, the sample size is small but away teams have won just 23 per cent of their games this season which is a big drop to the average away win percentage of around 35 per cent over the last five seasons.

“Teams that usually achieve away wins are in a confident mood and are comfortable with the structure and tactics of their approach. That's why I'm scratching my head at how short Aston Villa are to win at Leeds.

“Steven Gerrard's team are 2/1 with Sky Bet for victory despite winning just once in their last eight away Premier League matches - a stinking run backed up by some very worrying attacking metrics.

“Only Bournemouth have a lower expected goals tally this season than Villa (6.07) as Gerrard still has yet to stumble across a formula that gets the best out of his attacking players.

“With Lucas Digne and Boubacar Kamara now also unavailable for selection due to injury, Gerrard's hand is further weakened this weekend. I would be gobsmacked if they left Elland Road with three points and at 4/11 with Sky Bet, Leeds to win or draw this match is an odds-on winner in waiting if tackling short prices is your thing.”

So, how do those pundit predictions compare to the supercomputer’s prediction?

According to the FWP model, Leeds will win 2-0, in line with Jones’ prediction, with an impressively high 89.4% chance of winning.

According to the prediction, there is a 9% chance of a draw, while Villa have just a 1.7% chance of winning at Elland Road this weekend.