Leeds United solution to major source of Elland Road frustration revealed as tactics 'sweet spot' discovered

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Leeds United win proportionately more games when they have less of the ball under Daniel Farke.

Leeds United, who appointed the German as manager in July 2023, have this season boasted the highest average possession of any side in the Championship after five games.

Over the course of their first five matches, Leeds have averaged 60.9 per cent possession, four per cent greater than the team with the next highest average, Bristol City.

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Last season, Leeds averaged 58.2 per cent of the ball across their 46 league games which suggests the team are playing very much the same way, still seeking to dominate the ball more than most sides in the division. Although, during 2023/24 they were behind Southampton (66.1 per cent) and Leicester City (62.2 per cent) in first and second place, respectively.

One might assume that because the teams with the greatest average possession share both won promotion, that this is a tactic all teams seeking to go up should employ. After all, the opposition cannot score (calamitous own goals aside) if they do not have the ball.

Leeds better when not on the ball

However, under Farke, Leeds have tended to suffer more results-wise when spending more time on the ball. On nine occasions since Farke's appointment, Leeds have recorded a possession figure of 70 per cent or greater in a single game, but only been on the winning side three times.

Most recently, this was the case at home to Burnley who left Elland Road with all three points having taken fewer shots, recorded a lower Expected Goals (xG) total, won fewer corners and generally been on the back foot having taken the lead - although that appeared the Clarets' game-plan once going a goal up.

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When Leeds have had more than 60 per cent possession in games, their win ratio increases from 33 per cent, to 44 per cent (12 wins in 27 matches), but this is still some way short of a percentage that wins titles or automatic promotion.

Compare the above figures with Leeds' win-rate in games when they have had less than 50 per cent of the ball - five wins from eight - and it appears United are actually more dangerous when they don't have the ball for the majority of the game.

Farke has stated on several occasions he has no intention of deviating from his principles of play, which is to control the game by controlling who has the ball. But, in scenarios where Leeds are chasing, or when opponents are content to set up in a low block, all that possession comes to very little.

Leeds United possession share and win percentage

All competitions - since August 2023

Win percentage with LESS than 50% possession: 63 per cent - 5 wins from 8

Win percentage with MORE than 60% possession: 44 per cent - 12 wins from 27

Win percentage with MORE than 70% possession: 33 per cent - 3 wins from 9

Take the 1-0 defeat by Burnley last weekend as an example: Leeds' final attempt of the game came in the 71st minute, after which they had 71 per cent possession but did not create another shot as they went in search of an equaliser.

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Sitting back and inviting inferior opponents, on paper at least, to come and attack Leeds, who despite sitting ninth in the table boast the lowest xG Conceded (xGC) of any side in the division, is something Farke is unlikely to do. However, it might just be the thing which yields even more positive results.

The possession sweet spot

The sweet spot appears to be between 50 and 60 per cent possession where Leeds' record under Farke stands at 18 wins from 28 matches - 64 per cent - across all competitions. Last season, Leicester were crowned champions having won 67 per cent of their games, while Ipswich Town also went up with a 61 per cent win ratio throughout the campaign.

Granted, if Leeds find themselves chasing an equaliser or winner and the opposition exhibit little desire to have possession, there is not much United can do other than to probe with the ball at their feet. On the whole, though, if Leeds are to return to being successful as they were during the early portion of this calendar year, the key might be to tweak Farke's philosophy and spring more fast-break counter-attacking moves, which this squad is extremely well-equipped to do.

The German may argue his side, operating his style, earned 90 points last season which is an entirely valid rebuttal. Ninety proved not enough, though. If games in which Leeds had over 70 per cent of the ball, such as Blackburn Rovers (h), Huddersfield Town (a) and Rotherham United (a), panned out differently, allowing the opposition a greater share of possession for the reasons outlined above, how different Leeds' points tally at the end of 2023/24 could have looked.

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There is merit in sticking with one's principles and Farke certainly appears a proud individual, but in this business it may not be so prudent to do so at the expense of earning results, which is what he and his team will come to be judged on.

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