Leeds United goals concern laid bare as stats provide stark reality for Daniel Farke
Daniel Farke's Leeds United are yet to score a Premier League from open play from four games.
The story of Leeds United’s season looks to have been decided already. Goals, or a lack of, will go a long way to dictating whether Daniel Farke’s side finish above the dotted line or drop back into the Championship.
So far that story is not going Leeds’ way. They’ve scored just once in four games and that was a penalty - albeit one that earned a deserved three points against Everton. In three Premier League fixtures since, they have drawn a trio of blanks.
A 5-0 drubbing at Arsenal is what can happen against in-form title contenders but Leeds’ failure to find the net against Newcastle United and Fulham intensified concerns. Leeds also failed to get an attacker through the door between those two games, a shortcoming that has done little to ease fan angst.
The numbers behind those blanks won’t allay any fears, but added context might suggest an improvement is possible. Lukas Nmecha’s match-winning spot-kick aside, Leeds have put up an expected goals (xG) total of 2.9 according to FBRef, which essentially means the quality and quantity of chances they have created would have been expected to produce three open play goals in four games.
That tally is the joint-third lowest in the Premier League alongside goalless Aston Villa, which reflects exactly why fans are concerned. It is higher than Wolves, however, and even an improvement on Sunderland’s 2.7 which has actually produced four open play goals.
And while Leeds’ xG is among the lowest in the Premier League, it does suggest they should have scored at least a couple more goals. Had one of those been against Newcastle or Fulham, more points would have been on the board and a decent start to the campaign would look significantly better.
Quantity over quality for Leeds United’s attackers
A factor behind Leeds’ xG being significantly higher than their goals scored is that so far, it’s been quality over quantity. Last month’s 0-0 draw against Newcastle is a perfect example, with Farke’s side taking 10 shots that registered an xG value, but only two had an xG of 0.1 or above - which suggests the chance in question would be scored once out of every 10 attempts.
So far this season, Leeds have had 43 shots on goal which places them around mid-table in comparison to the other 19 teams, but removing Nmecha’s penalty again, their best chance according to the data was Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s first-half header at Fulham on Saturday. According to FotMob, that recorded an xG of just 0.3, and a VAR review would likely have ruled him offside anyway.
As for chances that would have stood, Dan James’ back-post stretch against Newcastle was given an xG of 0.22, meaning it would end with a goal less than one in four times on average. Put simply, it is not the kind of quality chance that deserves to be put away and result in a goal.
Those numbers would suggest that while Leeds are creating a good number of chances, they are of relatively low quality and therefore need good finishers to result in a goal. And that is the source of another concern surrounding the level of finisher Farke has at his disposal.
Daniel Farke’s Leeds United finishing problem
In eight full seasons at Everton, Calvert-Lewin underperformed his xG across a full campaign on seven occasions, while Nmecha twice underperformed his xG in four years at Wolfsburg and Noah Okafor went under his expected total last year. Last season at Leeds, Joel Piroe (+2.1), Dan James (+1.6) and Willy Gnonto (+0.7) scored more than their xG totals would have predicted but Brenden Aaronson (-2.3) was statistically the club’s worst finisher, while Jack Harrison (-2.5) was second-worst at Goodison Park behind only Calvert-Lewin (-3.7).
A slightly more optimistic point to note is that Leeds have faced the Premier League’s two strongest defences already, in terms of expected goals. Arsenal have only conceded once in four games from an xG against of 2.4, while Newcastle United have given away an even lower xG of 2.1.
Poor performances in front of goal against Everton and Fulham are certainly more of a concern, but Leeds will have few better chances to break their open-play duck than Saturday. Wolves are yet to pick up a single point and have conceded nine goals, with their four opponents racking up a combined xG of 7.1 - the third highest in the league.
Failure to create any high quality chances, and indeed score, will raise serious concerns as to how Leeds plan to do anything other than fight for a 0-0. But with only four games gone, there is of course plenty of scope for things to improve.