Leeds United discover likely points total for Premier League survival as stats reveal historic safety

Leeds United are now facing the reality of another relegation battle after defeat at the hands of Nottingham Forest last weekend.

The Whites lost their tenth game of the current Premier League season on Sunday, which leaves them just outside the bottom three on goal difference. Although, Leeds do have a game in hand still to play. As things stand, Jesse Marsch’s men have accrued just 18 points, already beyond the halfway stage of the league campaign.

Marsch is under increasingpressure, with his side picking up less than a point per game so far, and it’s not forecasted to get any easier over the next week or so, with the Whites facing Manchester United twice in back-to-back games. Then comes an all-important clash with relegation rivals Everton, who looked much more resolute in their first game under Sean Dyche, whereupon they defeated league leaders Arsenal.

The race to safety is already on for Leeds, Everton and many other clubs, but how many points will Leeds need to survive?

The magic number

The magic safety total in the Premier League has varied over the years. 40 points has traditionally been enough to guarantee safety, but the minimum figure required is usually lower.

Taking a look over the last 10 Premier League seasons, the most common total required is 35 points, and the actual average over that time frame is 34.9 points. The highest total required was 38 points, while the lowest was 29. Interestngly, data specialists FiveThirtyEight predict that 35 will be the magic number this season, based on evidence so far this term.

For the avoidance of doubt, the required points total we have stated is calculated by taking the team that finished 18th in each season and adding one point to their total.

How many points do Leeds need?

You may have done the maths already, but on average, Leeds need another 17 points to stand a reasonable chance of safety.

Marsch’s men are there or thereabouts in that they are around halfway through the season and they have half the amount of points they are likely to need. But as Leeds already know from last year, it’s much easier said than done, and actually getting those points on the board is a much harder task.

Remaining fixtures

Leeds likely need to find at least 17 points from the following remaining fixtures:

Manchester United (A)

Manchester United (H)

Everton (A)

Southampton (H)

Chelsea (A)

Brighton (H)

Wolves (A)

Arsenal (A)

Crystal Palace (H)

Liverpool (H)

Fulham (A)

Leicester City (H)

Bournemouth (A)

Manchester City (A)

Newcastle United (H)

West Ham (A)

Tottenham (H)

Leeds finished last season in 17th place with 38 points on the board, three clear of relegated Burnley.