Met Office Leeds weather: Bank holiday weather prediction as forecasters cast doubt on September heatwave claims

This summer will certainly not be remembered for its weather - drab skies and heavy showers have dominated for weeks.

Monday, 23rd August 2021, 11:25 am
Updated Monday, 23rd August 2021, 11:26 am

So hopes are high that the weather will warm up for the final month of summer.

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But, despite a lot of hot air over a potential heatwave, it doesn't look as though Leeds will be basking in lots of late summer sun.

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What is the August Bank Holiday 2021 weather forecast for Leeds?

The weather is going to remain fairly stable throughout this week and into the weekend.

High of 19C - 20C are expected over the weekend - and most importantly, it's set to stay dry.

Both days will see a sunny start, with cloud developing in the afternoon, with the sun then coming back out for a mild evening.

Similar weather is expected on Bank Holiday Monday.

According to the Met Office: "The last week in August and into September is likely to be dominated by high pressure resulting in fine and settled weather across the UK.

"This will bring variable amounts of cloud, sunny spells, a few light showers and mainly light winds but some fog patches overnight, which clear during early morning.

"It looks increasingly likely that these settled conditions will persist through much of this period, with perhaps weak frontal systems bringing some light rain and showers at times."

Will there be a September heatwave?

It seems unlikely there will be a full-blown heatwave, but we may see some warmer weather.

The Met Office says a UK heatwave threshold is met "when a location records a period of at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding the heatwave temperature threshold".

For the period September 6 - September 20, the Met Office says "temperatures are likely to be above average for the time of the year."

It adds: "Confidence decreasing into this period, however there is a signal for high pressure and associated settled conditions to gradually become less dominant, with a trend towards more unsettled conditions.

"This may bring changeable conditions with periods of showers and longer spells of rain, interspersed with drier spells at times."

The BBC forecast doesn't offer much more hope, with experts predicting a "cooler, unsettled, often wet month for many" in September.

Their UK-wide forecast for September 6 - September 19 states: "September weather comes with the general heavy caveat of hurricanes leading to a higher chance of disruption, but there are some encouraging signals on what we might expect if tropical cyclones stay away.

"High pressure north of Europe is likely to be a key feature for much of September, and they may extend into Central or Western Russia as well.

"In addition, high pressure will tend to build and shift around in the North Atlantic well to our southwest.

"These two areas of high pressure will tend to trap lows that are normally near Iceland over us instead.

"We anticipate a more unsettled month with wetter and generally cooler than normal weather.

"Winds may be a bit more variable, with some lighter winds despite low pressure nearby, so a lower chance of any autumn storms early on in the month."

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