Half term weather forecast for Leeds: What the Met Office is already predicting for October

The long range forecasts can predict the weather up to a month into the future.

They provide an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, across the country.

Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts.

These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts.

The current long range forecast runs as far as October 15.

This is what the Met Office has published so far:

Tuesday 21 Sep - Thursday 30 Sep

Tuesday will remain quite cloudy with some patchy outbreaks of light rain or drizzle and with the best of any sunny spells in central locations.

By mid-week a northwest to southeast split is likely to develop, and set the trend for the rest of September: the northwest will see the most of any unsettled conditions and outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy at times, with strong winds and coastal gales.

The southeast seeing drier and sunnier weather, though unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread here at times.

Temperatures generally near or above average, and likely to remain so for this period, still with some chilly and misty nights possibly, especially rural northern and western areas.

Friday 1 Oct - Friday 15 Oct

Current signals, although quite weak, suggest low pressure will lie to the northwest of the UK during this period.

This may bring unsettled conditions to northwestern areas, with a low risk of stormy conditions at times and in the southeast more settled weather is likely.

However, unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread into the southeast at times.

Temperatures are expected to be above average throughout this period.

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