Boris Johnson Covid conference: Cautious approach to ending England lockdown on July 19 confirmed

The Government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance has said vaccinations are reducing the overall chances of someone transmitting the virus by about 75 per cent.

Sir Patrick told a Downing Street news conference that people who had been vaccinated were both less likely to catch the virus and less likely to pass it on.

He said there was “no doubt” the country was in a third wave of the virus that would lead to an increase in the number of hospital admissions.

“If behaviour returns immediately to pre-pandemic levels that will be a very, very big rise. If we go slowly and cautiously, it will be less of a rise,” he said.

Boris Johnson added that nightclubs and other venues with crowds should use vaccine passports for entry “as a matter of social responsibility”.

He said: “As a matter of social responsibility we’re urging nightclubs and other venues with large crowds to make use of the NHS Covid Pass which shows proof of vaccination, recent negative test or natural immunity, as a means of entry.”

Boris Johnson has said a “gradual return to work over the summer” is expected rather than a rush back to the office en masse.

The Prime Minister added: “We’re removing the Government instruction to work from home where you can but we don’t expect that the whole country will return to their desk as one from Monday.

“We’re setting out guidance for business for a gradual return to work over the summer.”

Boris Johnson has warned that the coronavirus pandemic “is not over” as he said mask use will be advised in crowded and enclosed spaces even after legal controls end.

The Prime Minister told a Downing Street press conference: “It is absolutely vital that we proceed now with caution and I cannot say this powerfully or emphatically enough: this pandemic is not over.

“This disease, coronavirus, continues to carry risks for you and your family. We cannot simply revert instantly from Monday July 19 to life as it was before Covid.

“We will stick to our plan to lift legal restrictions and to lift social distancing, but we expect and recommend that people wear a face covering in crowded and enclosed spaces where you come into contact with those you don’t normally meet, such as on public transport.”

The peak of the third wave of Covid infection across England is not expected before mid-August and could lead to 1,000 to 2,000 hospital admissions per day, Government scientists believe.

Experts are urging the public to “go slow” once restrictions lift on July 19, to curb infections and cut the number of people who will go on to die from Covid-19.

They recommend that workers do not all head back to the office from mid-July, continue to wear masks in crowded spaces and stay at home when infected or contacted by the NHS app or NHS Test and Trace.

Central estimates from modellers advising Government show that step 4 of the road map for England and the wave of infection could be associated with 1,000 or more hospital admissions per day at the peak (with an estimate of 1,000 to 2,000 per day).

Deaths are expected to be between 100 and 200 per day at the peak of the wave, though there is a large amount of uncertainty in the modelling.

Most of the modelling presented to the Government has a lower expected peak of infection than that seen in January this year.

Scientists argue that if people revert to normal pre-pandemic behaviour all at once on July 19, then there will be a big wave of infection and larger numbers admitted to hospital.

Instead, if behaviour reverts to normal over several months, the impact will be lower.

Government scientists say that while the link between cases and hospital admissions is weakened due to vaccines, it has not been broken.

Labour has criticised the Government’s “high risk” and “fatalistic” approach to unlocking on July 19.

Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, told the Commons the Government’s plan to continue with the road map next week could lead to more mutant variants of Covid-19, likening it to the Health Secretary “putting his foot down on the accelerator while throwing the seat belt off”.

Mr Ashworth said: “The Secretary of State has taken a high risk, indeed fatalistic, approach. Trying to guess what might happen in the winter, deciding that infections are going up anyway.

“Instead of caution he is putting his foot down the on the accelerator while throwing the seat belt off.

“He admits that could mean 2,000 infections a day.

“That means potentially thousands suffering debilitating long Covid. It means as more cases arise potentially more escape and the threat of new more transmissible variant emerging.”

Ministers concluded that the four tests set for unlocking, the success of the vaccine rollout, evidence that vaccines are causing a reduction in hospital admissions and deaths, that infection rates do not risk a surge in admissions, and that no new variants of concern throw progress off track, are being met, allowing Step 4 of the road map to proceed as planned.

This is despite official acknowledgement that there could be 100,000 new cases a day in the summer.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson will lead a Downing Street press conference at 5pm to give further details of the plans, joined by chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance and chief medical officer Chris Whitty.

Downing Street said the Government will “expect and recommend” the continued use of face masks in crowded areas and on public transport.

The return of employees to the workplace, seen as key for helping town and city centre businesses which rely on commuters, is not expected to happen overnight, with firms encouraged to take a gradual approach.

A series of guidance documents will set out what is expected of firms as the Government shifts responsibility from the state to company bosses and citizens.

This includes new guidance for the clinically extremely vulnerable, those most at risk from coronavirus.

The use of domestic vaccine passports and face masks will be encouraged as ministers set out a cautious approach to England’s “freedom day” on July 19 in response to soaring coronavirus cases.

Although most legal restrictions will largely be lifted, hopes of a complete return to normality have been dashed by the spread of the Delta variant.

Health Secretary Sajid Javid told MPs that it was the “right time to get our nation closer to normal life”.

“To those who say ‘why take this step now’ I say ‘if not now, when?’

“There will never be a perfect time to take this step because we simply cannot eradicate this virus.”

Mr Javid said the Government’s approach was “about balancing the harms that are caused by Covid with the undeniable harms that restrictions bring”.

Vaccine passports to be encouraged

The Government has previously said that from Step 4 all coronavirus restrictions on gatherings will be removed, masks will no longer be legally required, social distancing measures will be scrapped and the order to work from home will be lifted.

But while the legal restrictions are going, guidance will make clear that people and firms are expected to continue to take action to limit the spread of the virus.

This includes the widespread use of Covid status certification, the so-called vaccine passports allowing people to show whether they are double-jabbed, have a negative test result or have natural immunity after recovering from Covid-19.

Nightclubs, which have been closed since the first lockdown in March last year, will be allowed to open their doors but will be encouraged to use certification to minimise the risks.

Other “large events” will also be encouraged to use vaccine passports, with customers able to prove their status using the NHS app.

Health Secretary Sajid Javid confirmed England will move to Step 4 of plans to ease coronavirus restrictions on July 19, saying: “If not now, when?”