Super League play-off race analysed: the run-in and what Leeds Rhinos need to do to climb into top-6

The leading trio of Hull KR, Wigan Warriors and Warrington Wolves are already secure, but with four games left to play, just two wins separate fourth-placed Salford Red Devils from Rhinos, who are eighth. It’s set up for an intriguing finale to Betfred Super League, which could go down to the final round.

Based on opponents’ position on the table, Rhinos have a slightly tougher run in than sixth-placed Catalans Dragons and St Helens, in fifth, but Leigh leopards - who are sixth - and Salford (fourth) have more daunting fixtures. The next two weeks, away to bottom club London Broncos and at home against Hull FC, are an opportunity for Rhinos to sneak into sixth spot.

Leigh, who are one point ahead of Rhinos, face a tough home game against third-placed Warrington on Saturday, before a trip to lowly Castleford Tigers. Catalans have a two point advantage over Leeds and are 19 better off on for and against, but play host to second-placed Wigan on Saturday and visit Salford the following weekend.

Rhinos will be favourites to pick up four points before they head into the toughest-possible final two fixtures, away to Wigan and leaders Hull KR. Rhinos have already beaten three of their final four opponents this term, including Wigan, but can’t take the sides battling to avoid the wooden spoon for granted.

Rhinos had a narrow victory at Hull in April, but lost there two months later, a result which cost then-coach Rohan Smith his job. They have also played London twice, recording a convincing home victory in May, but being fortunate to win in golden-point extra-time when the sides met in July.

Here’s how the run-in shapes up and what Leeds need to do to go above the four sides still in their sights.

Leeds Rhinos.

Eighth, on 24 points (+ 27 points difference).

Remaining fixtures: London Broncos (12th) away, Hull FC (11th) home, Wigan Warriors (second) away, Hull KR (top) away.

Difficulty factor (one point for playing the team 12th, 12 for playing the side in top spot): 26.

Last four results: (most recent first): WLWL.

Leigh Leopards.

Seventh, on 25 points (+ 160 points difference).

Remaining fixtures: Warrington Wolves (third) away, Castleford Tigers (10th) away, Hull KR (top), home, St Helens (fifth) home.

Difficulty factor: 33.

Last four results: WWWL.

Leeds need one more win than Leigh over the final four rounds to finish above them.

Catalans Dragons.

Sixth on 26 points (+46 points difference).

Remaining fixtures: Wigan Warriors (second) home, Salford Red Devils (fourth) away, London Broncos (12th) home, Hull FC (11th) home.

Difficulty factor: 23.

Last four results: LLWL.

One more win than Catalans could be enough for Rhinos, depending on points difference.

St Helens.

Fifth on 26 points (+184 points difference).

Remaining fixtures: Huddersfield Giants (ninth) away, Warrington Wolves (third) away, Castleford Tigers (10th) home, Leigh Leopards (seventh) away.

Last four results: LLWW.

Difficulty factor: 23.

Points difference means Rhinos will almost certainly need to win two more games than Saints to finish above them.

Salford Red Devils.

Fourth on 28 points (+18).

Remaining fixtures: Hull KR (top) away, Catalans Dragons (sixth) home, Hull FC (11th) away, Wigan Warriors (second) away.

Last four results: WLLW.

Difficulty factor: 32.

Leeds have a slightly better points difference so two wins might be enough, but more realistically they’ll probably need at least three more to overtake the Red Devils.