Why Leeds United's greatest promotion threat isn't Sunderland, Burnley or Sheffield United but a team you might not expect
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Leeds' start to the 2024/25 campaign has seen the Whites post a better points tally than at the same stage last season. Nevertheless, United are still outside the automatic promotion places, but only just this time.
Sitting in third place, a third of the way through the season, is a strong position to be in, especially when taking into account Leeds have lost two of their most important players, who just so happen to operate in the same position, in addition to significant transfer exits over the summer. Ilia Gruev and Ethan Ampadu's absence since the beginning of last month has largely been mitigated by the emergence of Ao Tanaka and Joe Rothwell as a more-than-competent midfield pairing, while Leeds have coped with the losses of Archie Gray, Georginio Rutter and Crysencio Summerville.
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Hide AdThe Whites have faced each of their direct promotion rivals so far this campaign, losing one, drawing one and winning one, against Burnley, Sunderland and Sheffield United, respectively.
However, there is one promotion contender not currently situated inside the top six, who could pose the greatest threat to Leeds' automatic promotion ambitions.
Michael Carrick's Middlesbrough have already visited Elland Road once this season and will do so again in a matter of weeks. Back at the start of 2024/25, Boro comprehensively defeated a much-changed Leeds XI by three goals to nil, eliminating the Whites from the Carabao Cup at the First Round stage.


On December 10, Carrick and his Boro clan travel back down the A1 for a meeting in the league and recently have begun to play themselves into form.
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Hide AdIn each of their last two Championship outings, Boro have scored at least four goals, beating QPR 4-1 and Luton Town 5-1. Last season's top scorer Emmanuel Latte Lath has rediscovered the scoring touch after a slow start to the season in which the striker was the subject of Premier League transfer interest that appeared to have affected him. Meanwhile, highly-rated midfielder Finn Azaz has also broken his 2024/25 duck.
Prior to his goal in the 3-3 draw at Norwich City on October 27, Azaz was the Championship player with the most Expected Goals (xG) without having found the back of the net. In Boro's most recent win, Azaz grabbed a brace against Rob Edwards' Hatters, taking his season tally to three, still short of his 4.09 xG total, according to data experts Opta.
Additionally, young Liverpool loanee Ben Doak has proven to be a particular menace when it comes to ball-carrying. In what has so far been a bit part role, playing approximately 50 per cent of Boro's available minutes, Doak leads the Championship in terms of carries into the penalty area, having done so 39 times. Leeds' Willy Gnonto has managed to do so 17 times, whilst playing 90 per cent of United's available minutes, by comparison, although that figure is likely impacted by the number of teams who set up in a low block when visiting Elland Road.
Mostly though, it is Boro's xG that suggests they will be there or thereabouts, with regards to the top two, come the end of the season. Leeds have scored 24 to Boro's 23, but the Teessiders' xG surpasses Daniel Farke's side's. Boro have accrued 28.01 xG compared to Leeds' 25.30 - the most and second-most in the division. Boro's xG underperformance is second only to Swansea City's in the Championship, too, which indicates over time, Carrick's side will begin to finish more of their chances, score more goals and win more games.
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Hide AdCurrently, the team are seventh, four places and five points below Leeds, but that gap could so easily be chipped away at if the north-east club begin to perform more in line with their expected numbers.
Granted, Boro's Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) is greater than Leeds' 8.8 xGC, but Carrick's 13.2 xGC is still fourth lowest in the Championship.
Contrastingly, league leaders Sunderland currently preside over the largest xG overperformance so far this term, which suggests their rate of scoring will drop off at some stage. Meanwhile, both Sheffield United and Burnley are overperforming their underlying numbers when it comes to finishing and chance creation. Blades' xG is the 16th highest in the Championship, while Burnley's is 21st, and defensively both sides have greatly overperformed their xGC, either through above-average goalkeeping or below-average finishing by their opponents - both things which are unlikely to be sustained over a 46-game season.
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