Unpredictable Leeds United man asks awkward question of Nottingham Forest’s Steve Cooper

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Javi Gracia's style of play at Leeds United has been hard to define because the Spaniard tailors United's game-plan to the strengths and weaknesses of their opponent

Unlike his predecessor, Gracia's tactical blueprint is not so easy to discern. Following his arrival at Elland Road, it was expected the 52-year-old would employ a 4-2-2-2 formation similar to the shape he settled upon whilst at Watford.

However, in practice, Gracia's Leeds have been more tactically flexible than most would have predicted. His latest experiment - going striker-less at Arsenal and deploying right-back Rasmus Kristensen in central midfield - appeared to be working until Luke Ayling's foul on Gabriel Jesus gave the Gunners a golden opportunity to change the complexion of the game from the penalty spot.

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Since assuming charge at Elland Road, Gracia's Leeds have tailored their approach to the opposition. Arsenal routinely record a surplus of possession at the Emirates Stadium this season, therefore Gracia set up with personnel that could operate as a 4-3-3, almost functioning as a back six when Kristensen and Jack Harrison in midfield doubled up with their respective full-back in wide areas. When possession was regained, Gracia's front three was made up of Crysencio Summerville, Luis Sinisterra and Brenden Aaronson - diminutive, technical players with direct running ability and most importantly, speed to cover large distances with the ball. In many ways, Leeds' setup during the first 30 minutes at Arsenal resembled that of a slingshot.

WOLVERHAMPTON, ENGLAND - MARCH 18: Javi Gracia, Manager of Leeds United, looks on prior to the Premier League match between Wolverhampton Wanderers and Leeds United at Molineux on March 18, 2023 in Wolverhampton, England. (Photo by Naomi Baker/Getty Images)WOLVERHAMPTON, ENGLAND - MARCH 18: Javi Gracia, Manager of Leeds United, looks on prior to the Premier League match between Wolverhampton Wanderers and Leeds United at Molineux on March 18, 2023 in Wolverhampton, England. (Photo by Naomi Baker/Getty Images)
WOLVERHAMPTON, ENGLAND - MARCH 18: Javi Gracia, Manager of Leeds United, looks on prior to the Premier League match between Wolverhampton Wanderers and Leeds United at Molineux on March 18, 2023 in Wolverhampton, England. (Photo by Naomi Baker/Getty Images)

This week, Gracia expects a more 'offensive' performance from his Whites players against Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace - teams on a more even footing in terms of quality, depth and league position.

"I expect a more offensive game for us than the last one," Gracia said in his pre-match press conference. "When we play against Arsenal, at the end it was 33 per cent possession for us. Of course we have to know the way to manage that percentage of possession, to try to be offensive, to be brave. I think we did that; five shots on target, Arsenal had six. We competed well.

"Now playing at home [vs Nottingham Forest] I expect a different game, a more offensive game with more possession and most important: a better result," Gracia added.

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Leeds' tactical inflexibility under Jesse Marsch struck a discordant note with supporters who perceived the American to be wedded too closely to his 'Red Bull' philosophy and vertical, centralised, chaos-ensuing style of play. More often than not, it made Leeds predictable and easy to defend against. Teams would sit in a medium or low block, pack central spaces and push the Whites towards areas of the pitch in which Marsch did not want them to play.

Gracia risked clashing with supporters - who for almost five years had been used to high-pressing, high-energy football - when instructing his players not to engage Brighton and Hove Albion's central defenders when in possession at Elland Road last month. Audible groans could be heard from pockets inside the ground as Adam Webster and Lewis Dunk were allowed to stand with the ball near halfway unopposed.

In doing so, though, Gracia was ensuring the Seagulls could not cut at the core of Leeds' defence; passing lanes were obstructed and pressing triggers carefully choreographed. Once the ball was played into the Brighton midfield, Leeds would converge on the receiver, looking to turn over possession.

Emboldened by the 2-2 draw which followed, Gracia defended his decision when asked why Leeds did not press in Brighton's half during his post-match press conference.

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"Because I know what happens when you go to press the goalkeeper against this team," Gracia explained. "I have seen many games. I know what happens, so we prefer to wait and wait in the right moment to be compact knowing many times we had two-v-two with our centre-backs in a high position as well because [Alexis] Mac Allister and [Evan] Ferguson drop some metres and make Robin [Koch] and Max [Wober] go with them.

"We had two players open in the midfield one-v-one against [Kaoru] Mitoma and [Solly] March and we took risks but if you speak about the keeper, we decided not to press him."

Then, away to Wolverhampton Wanderers, Gracia opted to substitute Patrick Bamford for Rasmus Kristensen. His decision to do so was not immediately obvious. Appropriately, those situated in the Molineux press box questioned where Kristensen would play, given he had replaced a striker and Luke Ayling remained on the pitch at right-back. Within 23 seconds, the Dane had scored his first goal for the club, operating as a right-sided midfielder, offering a robust counter-attacking threat with Leeds two, and then three, goals to the good.

Additionally, the coach's decision to replace a cautioned Junior Firpo with the taller, broader, fresher Pascal Struijk following Wolves' decision to bring on Adama Traore showed Gracia to be reactive as well as proactive in his tactical musings.

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The 52-year-old has already devised a plan to face Steve Cooper's Forest, who outwitted Marsch just shy of two months ago. The Spaniard is confident he has transmitted his ideas to the players who will carry them out. By tailoring game-plans to the oppositions strengths and weaknesses, Gracia's Leeds force their opponents to be introspective in their preparation.

'Where are our weaknesses? What might they try to curb, and exploit? In which areas of the pitch will Leeds dominate the territory?'

For principled coaches, perhaps more obstinate in their preferred styles of play, that presents an awkward problem.

"I don’t have any doubt about that [sticking to tactical discipline]. You can see in other games, vs Brighton it was difficult to keep that discipline. To keep our shape, do movements we don’t want to do, it wasn’t easy and we were really disciplined. The players are going to do the plan," Gracia said on Monday, citing his own tactical malleability.

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For so long, opposition managers have repeated the same line about playing against Leeds: 'They're energetic, hard runners, difficult to play against'. At their best, they were bustlingly brilliant; at their worst, porous and predictable.

Just as the Premier League table will remain unpredictable until the last, so too will Leeds' approach game-to-game between now and the end of the season. On the evidence Gracia has presented so far - a points-per-game average close to 1.5 - as well as a visual improvement on the pitch, it is Leeds' own unpredictability factor that could ensure their final day encounter at home to Tottenham Hotspur is a stress and consequence-free fixture, provided they pick up results in the interim, starting this week.