The points total to ensure Leeds United's Premier League safety if current trend continues

Yet, for the second season running, the signs are that a significantly lower tally will do which perhaps puts Leeds United nearer to safety than at first glance.

From a Whites perspective, the Premier League table makes for slightly more comfortable viewing than in the aftermath of last Thursday night's 3-0 defeat at home to Aston Villa.

The very one-sided reverse to Steven Gerrard's side left United just two points clear of the drop zone and there to be shot at by both Everton and Burnley with their games in hand.

But the Toffees and Clarets have both fluffed their lines since which is becoming a common theme and increases the likelihood of considerably less than 40 points being enough.

Leeds are now up to 26 points following Sunday's last-gasp success against Norwich and there are still another 27 points for Jesse Marsch's side to play for.

For the fantasists, it means that United could, technically, get themselves up to 53 points, two more than the current tally of fourth-placed Arsenal.

Yet the Gunners, leaders Manchester City and also third-placed Chelsea are all among United’s remaining opponents as part of a run-in that is something of a mixed bag but nowhere near as bad as Everton’s; the Toffees are still to face five of the division’s current top six, all bar Manchester City.

Furthermore, Frank Lampard’s side have lost eight of their last nine games and are easily the most out-of-form team in the division.

Four of the sides that Leeds will play in their final nine games currently sit in the bottom half in third-bottom Watford, 11th-placed Crystal Palace, 13th-placed Brighton and final-day hosts Brentford who are currently 15th, four points above the Whites.

City, Chelsea and Arsenal provide the big-gun opponents between now and the end of the campaign and the set is completed by clashes against Wolves and Southampton.

Going by the 40-point theory, 14 more would see Leeds safe - a difficult task given the run-in but far from impossible.

That, however, is based on the assumption that one of United’s relegation rivals finishes third-bottom on 39 points which is hard to envisage, not just on current form but the accumulation of points over the season as whole.

No side in the division’s bottom five is accumulating more than a point a game and, indeed, well below that ratio with Leeds averaging 0.9 per match.

Everton are picking up points at a rate of 0.85 per game with Watford at 0.76, Burnley 0.78 and Norwich just 0.59.

At the current rate, Leeds would finish on 34 points, a return which would likely mean relegation in most years.

But at the current ratio, Everton would end up on 32 points, Burnley on 30, Watford on 29 and Norwich on just 22.

For Leeds, it would mean that 31 points would be enough to stay up although seasons are rarely played out based upon theory and something nearer the 35-point marker is probably closer to what will be required.

But the Toffees, Hornets, Clarets and Canaries are going to have to transform their rates of progress quickly to prove such low forecasts wildly wrong and there are few signs of that happening, let alone without considering the run-ins.

When it comes to the betting markets and who the bookmakers believe are going down, Norwich are already considered gone, the Canaries now 1-80 for the drop but as short as 1-200 with some firms.

Watford are then 2-9 with Burnley 10-11, Leeds 2-1, Everton 21-10 and Brentford 10s.

The relegation battle is now seen as a six-runner race with Newcastle United now 50-1 to be playing Championship football next term.

In short, the odds compilers are certain that Norwich will be relegated and are fairly sure that Watford will be joining them.

It’s then one from Burnley, Leeds, Everton or Brentford too.

Assessing the table is complicated by the fact that second-bottom Burnley have played two games less and, essentially, if both the Clarets and Toffees win their additional games, then Leeds would find themselves in the drop zone by a point.

Burnley’s run-in is reasonable and certainly better than Everton’s, the Clarets facing only one of the division’s top five - City away in their next game.

Sean Dyche’s side also have three games to come against sides in the bottom six including trips to Norwich and Brentford.

But, whilst it’s never wise to survive through other sides slipping up, that has been the reality and the reason why Leeds are still sitting 16th despite a return of just 26 points from 29 games.

Technically speaking, 29 points would have been enough to stay up last season with third-bottom Fulham ending the season on 28 points although the picture is clouded as the Cottagers were relegated with three games to go, by which point Sheffield United and West Brom were already down, Burnley finishing fourth bottom but on 39 points.

Nevertheless, don’t be surprised to see the tally required fall considerably shorter than 40 points this time too.

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