Six reasons Leeds United should remain positive as huge drop-off for promotion rivals Sunderland and Burnley expected
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Next opponents
While it would be so typically 'Leeds' to turn up at the Cardiff City Stadium on Saturday and gift the Bluebirds their first point, or points, of the season, that remains particularly unlikely, even if the Welsh side switch managers.
Cardiff have one goal to their name this season and have conceded 11, whilst also bowing out of the Carabao Cup Second Round having conceded five to Southampton. The team are evidently devoid of confidence and the quality with which Leeds are likely to arrive with supersedes the talent on offer to Erol Bulut - if the Turkish boss is to remain in charge.
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Hide AdThere have been various reports suggesting all is not well in South Wales and that a change may be imminent. While that might institute the dreaded 'new manager bounce' for the visit of Leeds, Saturday's contest will be a fixture between two unmatched sides that should end in Leeds' favour.
Leeds are better off at this stage compared to last season
Last season, which finished with a 90-point haul and narrowly missing out on promotion, Leeds had only taken six points from their opening five matches, as opposed to the eight they currently boast.
While neither tally is reflective of a pace-setting side wrestling for top spot, the season is a long and arduous one and longevity will stand for something the further into the campaign we go. Leeds have the core of a squad that went 13 games unbeaten at the beginning of 2024, winning 12 of those. It's not out of the question that once new players have settled and the squad rediscovers their rhythm, that a similar run can't be put together at some stage.
Promotion rivals' huge xG overperformance
Leeds are only five points off top spot but it feels like a chasm when United are also ninth in the table. Between them and league leaders West Bromwich Albion are the likes of Sunderland, Burnley and Blackburn Rovers, all of whom are currently overperforming their Expected Goals (xG) by a considerable and wholly unsustainable amount.
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Hide AdBurnley have scored 11 goals from a mere 3.92 xG according to Opta, while the Black Cats have scored 12 from 7.93 xG. Blackburn, meanwhile, have also netted 12 times, but from 5.01 xG - all of which points towards a goalscoring regression at some stage as no Championship team is able to sustain that kind of overperformance across a 46-game stretch. Watch this space.
Best is yet to come
Four of Leeds' summer transfer arrivals were announced in the final days before the window closed last month. We are still to see what they can offer, particularly Largie Ramazani and Ao Tanaka who've been afforded few minutes in the form of cameos off the bench since joining the club.
Defensive solidity
Leeds' Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) is the lowest in the division after five games, which indicates they have one of the strongest defences. In addition to that, United have allowed the fewest opposition touches inside Illan Meslier's penalty area.
The attack will click
In an attacking sense, Leeds perhaps haven't clicked in the way Daniel Farke - or the fans, for that matter - will have wanted them to this season. But, the foundations are there: Leeds' final third pass success rate of 76 per cent is the highest in the division. Granted, much of that will have been due to United's aggressive positioning and opposition teams sitting extremely deep to frustrate and block routes to goal, but it does at the very least suggest Leeds are good at keeping the ball in tight areas, which will no doubt come in handy as the season progresses.
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