'One in 10' Leeds United concern revealed as goal glut predicted for prospect

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Leeds United are taking plenty of shots and many of them are hitting the target but their conversion rate remains mid-table after five games of the new 2024/25 Championship season.

Leeds' ability in front of goal this year has left a lot to be desired with already a handful of instances which supporters will hark back to as golden opportunities that were ultimately squandered, if 2024/25 is a repeat of last season.

Singling out individuals would be unfair given the two most high-profile misses of Leeds' campaign so far, have been by players who have otherwise shown they deserve to remain in the starting line-up.

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Mateo Joseph's miss in the opening minute of last weekend's 1-0 defeat by Burnley appeared gilt-edged at the time and upon further inspection via a replay, only served to reinforce that belief. Brenden Aaronson, meanwhile, had the chance to redeem himself once-and-for-all on the opening day but slotted his 97th-minute attempt wide of the mark when it seemed easier to score.

Aaronson's miss, had it found the net, would certainly have given Leeds three points over Portsmouth, while Joseph's wayward attempt would at the very least given a significantly different complexion to the fixture which subsequently saw Burnley sit back into a low block and frustrate United after taking the lead.

Football matches are won by the finest of margins and teams seeking automatic promotion need to prove their Premier League candidacy by showing top level finishing in front of goal. During the early part of 2024/25, Leeds' endeavours in this particular department have been lacking.

To have recorded the third-most shots and third-most shots on target, at an average of five per game, but converting less than one in 10 shots suggests there could be a squad-wide finishing issue.

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There are caveats such as Leeds not getting into as many goalscoring positions due to their opposition setting up with bodies between shooter and goalkeeper. But, there is also the argument Leeds' attack is still very young and lacks the star quality of a Crysencio Summerville, who on several occasions last season pulled United out of a jam with an impressive piece of individual finishing.

Whatever the solution, Leeds must find it. The team had nine shots during the second half against Burnley as they went in search of an equaliser but their final shot came with 20 minutes of the game still remaining. Not a single attempt had an Expected Goals (xG) value of greater than 0.04 during the second half, either, although Joseph's 52nd minute strike had an Expected Goal On Target (xGOT is a measure of finishing quality) value of 0.64 and drew a sublime save from Clarets 'keeper James Trafford.

Joseph's xGOT for the season is joint sixth-highest in the league which implies his finishing is on par with the division's best and that goals will come. Unfortunately for Leeds, the player with the next-highest xGOT is Junior Firpo who places 80th in the Championship for that particular metric, which suggests the team is currently lacking another natural-born finisher.

Daniel Farke has discussed on numerous occasions the finishing capabilities of Joel Piroe, but thrusting the Dutchman back into the starting line-up after a sub-standard start to the campaign would not be a popular move, nor would it guarantee an immediate uptick in goals because Leeds' attack does not appear to click in the same way with the 25-year-old in it.

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Willy Gnonto has a strike on him but less so when facing up to congested penalty areas and deep blocks, while Dan James who scored 13 last season having consciously worked on his finishing, is out injured until after the October international break.

Composure and application in front of goal is an area Leeds must seek to improve, on top of set-plays, if they are to be successful in their long-term goal of achieving promotion come the end of the season. While the numbers suggest Joseph will hit a purple patch sooner rather than later, United's task is finding goals from elsewhere to supplement their No. 9's tally because no team wins a place in the Premier League by relying solely on the goals of a single player, nor do they manage to do so with a team-wide converstion rate of nine per cent, which is Leeds' current figure for 2024/25.

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