Leeds United's recurring matchday problem revealed as new data explores weak mentality claim

The Whites broke their own Premier League record on Sunday, conceding 23 goals in a single calendar month, surpassing their previous effort of 20 concessions in February 2022 – a run which spelled the end for Marcelo Bielsa.

It has been an especially damaging month for the club, losing five of their seven Premier League matches and picking up a meagre four points in the process. Head coach Javi Gracia’s position has come under intense scrutiny following the team’s most recent collapse away to Bournemouth last weekend.

In particular, the speed and regularity with which Leeds have conceded goals in quick succession over multiple fixtures, has set alarm bells ringing within the club’s fanbase. Away to Arsenal at the beginning of the month, Leeds conceded their second and third goals of the afternoon in a 4-1 defeat over an eight-minute window shortly after half-time.

A week later, a spectacular second half caving saw Crystal Palace draw level on the stroke of half-time, before finding themselves 2-1 up on 52 minutes, and 3-1 up just two minutes later before eventually scoring twice more to inflict a 5-1 scoreline on the home side.

Worse was yet to come, though, as Cody Gakpo and Mohamed Salah scored four minutes apart during Liverpool’s 6-1 demolition of Leeds at Elland Road, to put the Reds 2-0 up during the first half.

And once more at the Vitality Stadium, it was a case of conceding in quick succession as Bournemouth’s Jefferson Lerma struck twice in the space of four minutes to give the Cherries what proved to be an unassailable 2-0 lead just 23 minutes into the match.

Leeds’ apparent fragility when going a goal down is reflected in their Expected Goals Against (xGA). Under Gracia, the Whites have trailed by one goal for a total of 154 minutes across the 11 Premier League matches he has taken charge of. In that time, Leeds have conceded a staggering 5.15 xGA, per Opta data.

This checks out at just over 3.00 xGA per 90 minutes. Over the entire season, Leeds’ xGA per 90 when trailing by a single goal is 1.47, indicating United are currently conceding twice as many chances when going a goal down, compared to the season average.

This eventuality in one fixture may be reflective of Leeds coming up against a side who refuse to sit back when taking the lead, instead going for the jugular. However, for it to have happened against Arsenal, Palace, Liverpool and Bournemouth – all within the space of 30 days – suggests the issue lies with Leeds.

Since Gracia’s arrival, Leeds have spent fractionally more time two-or-more goals down (170 minutes) allowing 3.96 xGA during such game-states.

Comparatively, with the scores level, Leeds have conceded 6.58 xGA across a much larger sample of 447 minutes which is more in line with the average performance of a bottom-half Premier League side.

Putting a finger on exactly why Leeds seemingly fall to pieces after conceding is tricky; it could feasibly be a result of tactical tweaks, committing more bodies forward in an attempt to restore parity, or a collective loss of concentration and composure.

It must be said, though, Leeds have not been resolute at denying opponents chances when they have led in games either, although the data does suggest they are somewhat better than when finding themselves a goal down.

When a goal up under Gracia, Leeds have conceded 3.83 xGA, across 195 minutes – hardly reflective of a side capable of shutting up shop, nor is it catastrophic.

Meanwhile, Leeds have only led by two-or-more goals under Gracia during their 4-2 victory against Wolverhampton Wanderers in March. In that game, they spent just 24 minutes leading comfortably, during which time they allowed 1.74 xGA and subsequently conceded two goals.

The concern is this: Leeds have conceded the most goals in the Premier League this season, therefore there is little hope of keeping scores level as they face up to their four remaining fixtures, each taking on greater importance than the last.

They’ve also demonstrated over the past month that when they do concede first, Leeds are actually more susceptible to conceding again. Even when going a goal or two up in games, they are incapable of holding their advantage for any meaningful period of time.

Leeds’ is a particularly sorry state of affairs when it appears as though sneaking the odd draw here and there by keeping things tight between now and the end of the season, might prove enough to stay in the division.

Speculating on the collective mental state of the group is conjectural at best, but the body language of Gracia’s squad as they faced up to an away end chanting ‘you’re not fit to wear the shirt’ last weekend, was not one of defiance or one that inspires hope.

Their performances during different game-states, meanwhile, is much clearer to discern and signals that save for drastic change in several areas, Leeds are heading for the Premier League’s trap door.