Leeds United's major Raphinha problem laid bare as Barcelona financial situation pulls focus

Raphinha might be a problem for Leeds United or, at the very least, a serious challenge.
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A starter for Brazil again in midweek against South Korea, the winger is hot property after two seasons of proving himself at Premier League level and emerging on the international scene as a serious player. Although the quality of the opposition had to be taken into account, he shone in today's friendly in Seoul, moving constantly to provide his team-mates with a wide option and creating danger on numerous occasions. Had his curling 75th minute effort from distance crept inside the post and not cannoned back off it, the Leeds man would have had a goal his efforts richly deserved and perhaps bumped his price tag up a tad too.

Barcelona want him, although whether or not they can actually afford him appears quite another matter, and there are others who can provide Champions League football casting admiring glances in the direction of the 25-year-old.

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Having spent just £17m on him and reaped 17 goals and 12 assists, not to mention the sheer entertainment value he brings, Leeds will be quids in if they sell this summer, thanks in part to the two years that remain on his contract.

It was fitting that he won and scored a penalty on the final day of the season to help keep them in the Premier League because this season, with Patrick Bamford out injured and few others consistently stepping up to the mark, Raphinha has been the talisman. Leeds looked to him time and time again and he, dips in form aside, delivered often enough to ensure his star continued to rise.

The top-flight status that he helped secure safeguards Leeds from a forced sale that would bring in only half of what he is worth as a £50m-plus player and strengthens their hand this summer. Their position remains complicated though, precisely because of Raphinha and who he is for Leeds.

It was clear from his post-match demeanour after the Brighton game at Elland Road that he was saying goodbye to the stadium he has graced for two campaigns, or at least taking the opportunity to drink it all in lest he would not get another chance, but sources at Leeds are keen to stress that the player and his attitude have not been a problem.

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Talks over a new contract dried up in January but Raphinha’s enthusiasm for the job at hand did not. Jesse Marsch’s system wasn’t quite a perfect fit for a player whose best work is mostly seen on the touchline, yet he continued to make the same repeated sprints up and down the pitch in search of the ball.

INTERNATIONAL STAR - Raphinha, right, shone for Brazil again in a 5-1 friendly win over South Korea as Leeds United face a summer transfer window challenge over the Barcelona target. Pic: GettyINTERNATIONAL STAR - Raphinha, right, shone for Brazil again in a 5-1 friendly win over South Korea as Leeds United face a summer transfer window challenge over the Barcelona target. Pic: Getty
INTERNATIONAL STAR - Raphinha, right, shone for Brazil again in a 5-1 friendly win over South Korea as Leeds United face a summer transfer window challenge over the Barcelona target. Pic: Getty

Even when he was asked to play wing-back there were no signs of discontent beyond the disdain for defeat he has never quite managed to hide. And he continued to take responsibility, always showing for the ball, always demanding it and trying to do something effective with it.

Football Data Analyst Mark Taylor, of Infogol, explains just how much weight the Brazilian carried when it came to taking the ball towards the opposition goal and where that puts him in Premier League terms.

“Some teams as a unit are better at moving the ball,” he told the YEP. “Liverpool, for example, create around 60 per cent more ball progression than Leeds so Trent Alexander-Arnold is going to be way ahead of Raphinha on raw figures.

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“Liverpool are a ball progression machine. Leeds are around mid division for progression in the Premier League. To try to account for this imbalance you see what percentage of ball progression a player creates by referring to his own team’s baseline.

“Raphinha created 29 per cent of Leeds United’s baseline carries and 23 per cent of their baseline passes – that was the second best in the league behind Wilfried Zaha at Crystal Palace,” he told the YEP.

“In short, Leeds didn’t create as much progression as Liverpool or Manchester City, but Raphina created the lion’s share of what progression they did create. He was a huge contributor.”

Herein lies the challenge for Victor Orta, for whom Raphinha undoubtedly counts among his greatest ever signings. Leeds must not only replace a winger, but a winger who accounted for an enormous portion of the team’s progressive play and creativity.

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“No-one from the 2021/22 Leeds squad fills the Raphina spot, output wise,” said Taylor.

“Patrick Bamford and Daniel James have similar carry percentages, but nowhere near his passing creativity. Jack Harrison represents a big drop off for both passes and carries, but is more balanced than the previous two. Crysencio Summerville is a wildcard with similar numbers to Harrison, but few minutes.”

New signing Brenden Aaronson will be expected to chip in with goals and assists from an attacking midfield position but Taylor considers it a stretch to expect him to provide a guaranteed direct replacement of Raphinha’s influence.

Although Marsch will be keen to ensure that the load is spread more evenly across a squad better equipped to attack, a major part of the solution, if Raphinha departs, almost certainly lies in the summer transfer window. His sale would of course give Leeds the funds to replace him.

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A winger is far from their only need this summer, though and the needs are such that the Raphinha money has to be so significant that it stretches. This is another area of potential concern. Barcelona have generated so much noise that a Camp Nou move has at times felt inevitable yet there is presently just as much noise around their financial situation and the requirement to sell players in order to sign new ones.

If the sale of Raphinha is going to form a serious part of Orta’s summer budget then Leeds cannot allow the pace of their transfer window business to be dictated by Barcelona’s – the tail should not wag the dog. This already has the hallmarks of a saga and the window hasn’t even opened.

Leeds’ dream might be to keep the Brazilian until he has a chance to shine at the World Cup and generate an even bigger transfer fee, but they’d settle for bringing serious offers to the table, offers that force Barcelona to do the proverbial or get off the pot, offers that could realistically and before long end in a deal.

The nightmare scenarios are obvious – a player setting his heart on a club that cannot afford him, cannot get the money together until the window is in its latter stages or cannot pay enough up front, a protracted period of uncertainty that stops the Whites from getting on with their own rebuild or a late sale that jeopardises attempts to replace him.

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Leeds have vowed not to sell him on the cheap and are in no position to settle for less than prize assets are worth, something the player, his camp and any suitors, Barcelona included, must accept.

Whatever happens in the coming weeks, the bottom line for Leeds is that they must enter the 2022/23 season with a better squad than the one that ended the 2021/22 campaign.

They’ve made a solid start with the lightning-quick move for Aaronson and are closing in on right-back Rasmus Kristensen as the board’s commitment to improve plays out in the market.

There’s still so much to do, however, to get better.

Buying Raphinha in 2020 made Leeds better. If it takes selling him to do so again, so be it, but it has to be on Leeds’ terms.