Leeds United supercomputer flaw and 'bluffer' prediction of where points come in final seven games

If looking at the actual Premier League table doesn't sufficiently fill Leeds United fans with confidence ahead of the relegation run-in, there's always the one the supercomputer dreams up.

Right now, the one produced by data firm FiveThirtyEight, using their forecasts and 'Soccer Power Index' ratings to predict every fixture, has Leeds sitting pretty in 16th with a mighty 37 points come the final whistle of the 2022/23 top flight season. That's a full eight points more than Javi Gracia's men have to their name right now.

According to their simulations of the rest of the campaign, FiveThirtyEight are tipping Southampton to finish bottom with Nottingham Forest and Everton dropping into the Championship with them. Phew!

Even after the combined 11-2 scoreline from Leeds' last two games, a pair of brutal defeats at the hands of Crystal Palace and Liverpool, the bookies agree with the data folk. They have the Whites fifth favourites for the drop at 5/2.

There you have it. Relax. Turn up at Craven Cottage on Saturday for the Fulham game and enjoy a day out in the nation's capital, before a beautiful spring evening Elland Road soirée with Leicester City on Tuesday. The points will come, safety will beckon and on August 12 the Premier League's warm embrace will envelop Leeds United once again.

If only it was that simple. As anyone with an ounce of sense, or even the slightest experience of following a football team will tell you, there is no telling what could happen between now and the end of the Spurs game in May. Anyone who confidently expounds a prediction either way on Leeds' top flight fate is either a bluffer or a pessimist.

All we know is that Leeds are likely to need at least two wins from their remaining seven games to stay in the division - the rest is speculation and mathematical equations that simply cannot fathom what might occur.

Alright, the 'super computer' might have correctly forecast Leeds staying up at this stage last season with seven games to go - fair play son - but it also had Everton going down.

Regardless, there wasn't a person or a machine on the planet that could have told you last March that Joe Gelhardt, all 5ft 7ins of him, would beat 6ft 1ins Ben Gibson in an aerial challenge to set Raphinha on his way in the 90th minute against Norwich, before racing into the area to get on the end of the Brazilian's pass and score.

Who had Pascal Struijk popping up to score his only goal of the season to secure a vital point against Brighton in the penultimate game of the season?

And the madness, the sheer chaos of that final day was beyond unpredictable. Brentford down to nine men, Wout Weghorst missing a golden chance to level for Burnley against Newcastle, Jack Harrison scoring via a deflection in the last minute.

The honest among us will admit that as the games kicked off, Leeds' hopes looked forlorn. And yet, we just didn't know what would happen.

That's where much of football's beauty is found. It is unknowable, until it happens and then it's either glorious or treacherous or something in between. In the absence of knowledge and certainty, hope or doubt creep in to take hold and then the events of 90 minutes justify and magnify one of the two emotions. What is decidedly uncomfortable for Leeds fans right now is the unknown source of the points their side needs to stay up.

So with all of the above said, here is the official and meticulously calculated YEP probabilities for the remaining games. A bluffer’s guide to survival, you might call it.

Fulham, away

Probability of a Leeds win - as likely as Aleksandar Mitrovic hanging up his boots to become a referee.

Prediction - Defeat. Fulham are a good side, Leeds are a struggling side and though Gracia may be able to shore them up, it's difficult to see the Whites bouncing back sufficiently to win. A draw would be a fine result, however.

Leicester, home

Probability of a Leeds win - as likely as a Junior Firpo yellow card.

Prediction - Win. Not a comfortable one, but a win all the same. They have to. It's a must-win game. Of all the remaining games it's the biggest given the opposition and the venue. Anything but a win is unthinkable. It's not a safe bet - FiveThirtyEight say Leeds have a 39 per cent probability of victory and the Foxes a 37 per cent probability - but what is at this stage?

Bournemouth, away

Probability of a Leeds win - as likely as Willy Gnonto being seen without Crysencio Summerville.

Prediction - Draw. Bournemouth, fresh from a win over Southampton that all-but seals their safety, are on the beach and Leeds take advantage to snatch a point. Squint hard enough and you can see it, can't you?

Manchester City, away

Probability of a Leeds win - as likely as beating Pep Guardiola's side away from home with 10 men.

Prediction - A defeat. Sniffing a league title, Manchester City will be on it and their world class quality will show. Besides, lightning just isn't likely to strike again. It won't, will it? It couldn't, could it? No.

Newcastle United, home

Probability of a Leeds win - as likely as Eddie Howe wearing a Just Stop Oil t-shirt.

Prediction - A defeat. Newcastle United are having a fantastic season, Howe is doing great things and they have a huge amount to play for. Of course by that stage it could have gone horribly awry but it doesn't feel like the race for the Champions League will be over.

West Ham, away

Probability of a Leeds win - as likely as a favourable VAR controversy in London.

Prediction - A draw. A cagey affair in which neither side wants to be the one making the fatal error, knowing how precious a draw would be. This game could be a huge one and a hugely difficult one. That draw prediction has more than a whiff of hope about it.

Tottenham Hotspur, home

Probability of a Leeds win - as likely as Javi Gracia giving an injury update.

Prediction - Sometimes he does, sometimes he doesn't, but we're going with a WIN - against all odds. Unlikely as it might be on paper and in the inner workings of a supercomputer, there's just something very Leedsy and Spursy about the idea of the hosts winning it, in dramatic fashion, to stay up and, in turn, deny the visitors something good. The safest bet of all, perhaps, is that this game will still carry meaning. This season has the look of one that will present a live threat to the very end.