Leeds United survival bid: Points needed, predicted table & run-in analysed after Man Utd win & Tottenham blow
A fresh look at Leeds United's bid for Premier League survival following a mammoth win at Manchester United.
Leeds United took a big step towards Premier League safety following Monday’s historic 2-1 win at Manchester United. Noah Okafor’s first-half brace proved decisive as the Whites held off their 10-man hosts to enjoy a first top-flight win at Old Trafford since 1981.
That history-making victory, earned despite conceding a Casemiro header, will live long in the memory of Leeds fans but the more immediate boost was three points. Just a second away Premier League win of the season has pulled Daniel Farke’s side six points clear of the relegation zone.
Things tightened up a little over the weekend, with West Ham thrashing Wolves 4-0 to climb out of the bottom three and one point shy of Leeds. Tottenham Hotspur dropped into 18th as a result and remain there, having lost 1-0 at Sunderland on Sunday while Nottingham Forest drew 1-1 at home to Aston Villa.
Following another dramatic weekend in the relegation battle, Opta have updated their predictions and it makes good reading for Leeds.
Predicted Premier League table
Here is what the bottom six looks like in Opta’s Premier League predicted table:
15. Leeds United - 44 points
16. Nottingham Forest - 41 points
17. West Ham - 38 points
18. Tottenham - 37 points
19. Burnley - 25 points
20. Wolves - 24 points
How many points do Leeds United need to survive?
Victory over Manchester United on Monday pulled Leeds up to 36 points from 32 games, leaving them within touching distance of reaching their point-per-game target and the magical 40-point milestone. Opta predict they will pick up another eight points from their final six fixtures.
That would virtually guarantee survival but if Opta’s predictions prove to be accurate, Leeds won’t need anywhere close to eight more points to finish outside the bottom three. Tottenham are expected to finish 18th on 37 points, a tally Farke’s side can beat with just one win or a couple of draws.
Realistically, no one will want it to be so tight and Leeds fans are now looking at when they could be mathematically safe amid hope that the final-day trip to West Ham won’t be so tense. Tottenham are the ones to look at in this case, given the Whites go to North London in May.
If Leeds are anywhere between four and six points clear of Spurs heading into that meeting, victory at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium would guarantee safety. Should Farke’s side head to the capital with a seven-point cushion or more, a draw would do it.
Leeds United’s run-in compared to rivals
Leeds also have a more favourable run-in compared to their relegation rivals, on paper at least. Let’s take a look:
Leeds United’s run-in
Wolves (H), Bournemouth (A), Burnley (H), Tottenham (A), Brighton (H), West Ham (A)
Nottingham Forest’s run-in
Burnley (H), Sunderland (A), Chelsea (A), Newcastle United (H), Man Utd (A), Bournemouth (H)
West Ham’s run-in
Crystal Palace (A), Everton (H), Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle United (A), Leeds United (H)
Tottenham’s run-in
Brighton (H), Wolves (A), Aston Villa (A), Leeds United (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H)
Burnley’s run-in
Nottingham Forest (A), Man City (H), Leeds United (A), Aston Villa (H), Arsenal (A), Wolves (H)
Wolves’ run-in
Leeds United (A), Tottenham (H), Sunderland (H), Brighton (A), Fulham (H), Burnley (A)