Leeds United escape act impacted by fixture list as history reveals scale of Javi Gracia’s task

In each of the last two Premier League seasons, all six teams in the relegation zone after 26 matches were subsequently jettisoned from the division at the end of the 2020/21 and 2021/22 campaigns.

Going back further over the last five seasons, the odds of survival are greater but only just: three of 15 teams in the relegation zone after 26 matches, between 2017/18 and 2021/22, managed to survive.

Meanwhile, in three of the last five seasons, teams were relegated despite having accrued more points after 26 matches than Leeds' present total of 23.

Leeds are currently 19th in the Premier League table, one point from bottom spot which is occupied by Southampton. Equally, the Whites are only one point adrift of 17th placed West Ham United, who still have what appears likely to be three Europa Conference League fixtures to contend with amid their battle against the drop.

Based on historic Premier League performance, Leeds’ chances of surviving are decidedly slimmer than anyone at Elland Road would like, but fixtures against Wolverhampton Wanderers, Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, Leicester City, AFC Bournemouth and West Ham mean the Whites’ fate is still very much in their own hands.

Each of the teams listed above are within five points of 20th place – the race to avoid the drop this season is among the fiercest in recent history with last place Southampton hypothetically just two wins away from leapfrogging Crystal Palace in 12th.

Leeds find themselves caught up in the maelstrom for a second successive season but can take positives from the fact last year’s relegated trio all had fewer points than Leeds currently do at the same stage of the campaign.

Data experts Opta forecast Leeds’ chance of relegation closer to 50 per cent. This is likely due to the closeness of the bottom nine, as typically at this stage one or more teams has usually been cut adrift at the foot of the table.

Leeds have slipped into the bottom three on two prior occasions this season but in both instances climbed out following their next match. In October, the Whites kicked off against Liverpool at Anfield in 18th but by full-time were no longer in the relegation zone, courtesy of Crysencio Summerville’s late winner.

Similarly, Leeds started the day in 19th before their bottom-of-the-table clash against Southampton last month and responded with a victory to pull clear once again. This weekend, they must do the same away to Wolves.