Leeds United's secret 'endurance' weapon to blow promotion race wide open in Whites' favour - analysis

Farke's calm demeanour, regardless of result or their impact on the Championship table, has been a constant throughout the German's first campaign in charge at Elland Road, probably because he's been here before. A two-time title winner at this level, Farke's 2019 and 2021 triumphs with Norwich City is the joint-most of any manager in this division, along with Mick McCarthy, Kevin Keegan and Peter Reid.

Two of the last five Championship titles were lifted by the German, both at Carrow Road, both with a points-per-game (PPG) average greater than Marcelo Bielsa's 2.02 during 2019/20.

Farke spent four full seasons as Norwich boss, three of which in the second tier. In two of those three seasons, the Canaries PPG average improved during the second half of the campaign. The year it did not - 2018/19 - Norwich matched their tally from the first half of the season, picking up 47 points from 23 matches either side of Christmas as they went on to lift the Championship title, finishing with a total of 94.

Norwich's PPG during Farke's first year in charge improved from 1.17 in the first half of the campaign, to 1.43 during the second. Similarly, the Canaries' PPG in 2020/21 improved, somewhat remarkably, from 2.04 during the first half of the season, to 2.17 in their final 23 league matches as they romped to the title.

In layman's terms, it suggests Farke's teams always have another gear, particularly as they enter the home straight. The year they did not, Norwich's PPG remained the same during the first and second halves of the campaign, at 2.04 - enough to clinch the title, as they managed, in ten of the last fifteen seasons at this level. Leeds are only six games into the second half of 2023/24 but early indications are that this side also has the capacity to improve.

In Leeds' opening 23 league games of this season, the team averaged 1.96 points-per-game - the same as Eddie Howe's Bournemouth in 2015 and Marco Silva's Fulham in 2022, both of whom were promoted as champions. In Leeds' most recent 23 league outings, however, their average has improved to 2.09 PPG. Naturally, this has been aided by United's 100 per cent Championship record during 2024, winning four out of four so far, but it is reflective of the wider trend stemming from Farke's time at Carrow Road.

During the two seasons Norwich were crowned champions, Farke's team went on stunning unbeaten and consecutive winning runs. In 2018/19, the Canaries were unbeaten in their final 14 games of the season, keeping promotion challengers at arm's length right to the finish, refusing to slip up. Their promotion to the Premier League that year came after a spell of just two defeats during the entire second half of the season, and one loss in their final 21 league games.

Two years later, Farke's Norwich were at it again, presiding over a nine-game winning streak between mid-February and late March, which featured as part of a 13-game unbeaten run. The side eventually finished six points clear of second place Watford and had lost just three times during the entire second half of the campaign.

Even in 2017/18, as Norwich finished 15th, the team lost 10 of their first 23 league games under Farke, but in the 23 that followed, would lose only six more times, going on a seven-match unbeaten run between late January and early March.

If the history of Farke's Canaries is anything to go by, Leeds might have actually hit their stride a few weeks early and considering Norwich went from strength-to-strength as the campaigns wore on, the endurance of Farke's previous Championship sides can only be a good thing for United in what is proving to be a fierce and unrelenting battle for automatic promotion.

While Farke will be the first to warn that past performance is no guarantee of future success, it certainly is helpful in providing an informed prediction of what eventually does happen.