How unrelated £20m Premier League transfer likely to positively impact Leeds United promotion charge

The Whites currently sit top of the Championship table despite draws with Blackburn Rovers and Hull City in their two most recent fixtures, however, Burnley and Sheffield United are both just a point behind Daniel Farke's men, lying in wait to snatch top spot.

Scott Parker's Clarets have the best defence in the division this season, conceding just nine goals in 26 outings, which is largely to do with goalkeeper James Trafford, whose Man of the Match display at Elland Road earlier this season secured a 1-0 victory for the Lancashire side.

Trafford is known to be a long-term goalkeeping target for Champions League hopefuls Newcastle, though, and this month the north east club are expected to bid farewell to back-up stopper Martin Dubravka, who is likely to join Al-Shabab in Saudi Arabia.

First-choice at St James' Park Nick Pope is out injured at present, although is anticipated to make a return at some stage this month. Head coach Eddie Howe, who appears unsure on alternative reserve options John Ruddy and Odysseas Vlachodimos, is unlikely to sanction Dubravka's exit without a replacement lined up, which has been tipped to be Trafford.

“The situation with Martin is we would not want him to leave, but of course you have to respect and understand the player’s wishes as well in this. It’s not as clear-cut as everyone would necessarily have you think," Howe said last week.

"Martin is out of contract as well in the summer, so that’s a different dynamic to add into the mix."

It is suggested a £20 million transfer for England youngster Trafford could be struck this month, seeing the 22-year-old swap Turf Moor for Newcastle-upon-Tyne.

How this could potentially affect Leeds' automatic promotion and title hopes is such: Trafford is one of the Championship's top-performing goalkeepers this season and losing him would leave Burnley in a difficult position, possibly conceding more in line with the number of goals they have been expected to allow throughout the first half of 2024/25.

According to Opta, Burnley's Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) is 20.28 after 26 games, but in actuality the Clarets have only allowed nine. This is down to a combination of above average goalkeeping and poor finishing on their opponents' part, but is wholly unsustainable if personnel between the posts were to change.

Burnley's goalkeeping overperformance is the second largest in the Championship, therefore it is reasonable to expect a drop-off in that department if Trafford makes for the exit. Given Parker's side have relied on several victories by a single-goal margin this term, and only managed to generate 26.75 xG from 26 games - as opposed to Leeds' 47.25 - even a slight decrease in their performance level defensively could yield a significant change in results, causing the Clarets to lose pace with Leeds, should Farke's men maintain their league-leading run into the second half of the campaign.

Leeds are scheduled to meet Burnley at Turf Moor later this month in the reverse fixture of the fixture won 1-0 by the Clarets at Elland Road back in September.

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