Guaranteed £105m loss gifts Leeds United upper hand in Rodon and Roberts summer transfer negotiations

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Tottenham Hotspur's failure to secure Champions League football next season coupled with Burnley's relegation from the top flight gives Leeds United an advantage when negotiating two potential transfers in the coming months.

The summer window for EFL clubs opens on Friday, June 14 but work is already underway at Elland Road to build a competitive squad for 2024/25. As is the case each year, contracts will be renegotiated and signed, while others will leave, parting company with the club at the end of their expiring deals. Players out necessitates players in, at all levels, and considering Leeds' use of loan players throughout 2023/24, there will be a few areas of the pitch that require supplementation in the upcoming transfer period.

It is the view among the vast majority of supporters that a permanent move for Spurs loanee Joe Rodon should be sought as a top priority this summer. While it's highly unlikely a deal will be struck which sees the Welsh international put pen to paper on an Elland Road contract within the first few days of the window, regardless of which league the Whites are in, exploratory talks are almost certain to be held, aimed at keeping the 26-year-old for the foreseeable.

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The reason Rodon is unlikely to sign permanently early in the window is due to the nature of transfer negotiations. If Leeds set out their intention to sign the player who has never appeared to be in Ange Postecoglou's thinking at Spurs, the North London club can quite rightly strong-arm the Whites into paying over the odds. Leeds will not want to show their hand so early in the window, even if the appetite for Rodon's retention is somewhat obvious.

Tuesday evening's Premier League action between Spurs and Manchester City confirmed Tottenham would no longer be able to qualify for next season's UEFA Champions League, instead having to settle for Europa League football. Participation in Europe's premium club competition is especially lucrative and worth £13.5 million to clubs for competing in the group stage alone.

Each victory is worth an additional £2.4 million, whilst draws bring in £800,000, not to mention bumper gate receipts in fixtures against high-calibre opponents, more gainful commercial partnerships and sponsorships for competing on the biggest stage with the largest potential global audience.

In layman's terms, missing out on the Champions League is a blow to Spurs, both in sporting and financial terms. For that reason, the club's negotiating position for players such as Rodon weakens, while Leeds' position becomes stronger. Granted, Leeds' best negotiating tactic is to promote to the Premier League where they would be able to afford a greater pool of alternatives, potentially leaving Spurs with a player on their books they do not see the use in keeping.

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Similarly, a permanent move for on-loan full-back Connor Roberts may be sought this summer. While the desire to retain the Wales defender may not be as strong among supporters as the keenness for Rodon, the 28-year-old is open to an Elland Road stay and his usefulness has been demonstrated in glimpses during the second half of this season. Adding a player of Roberts' experience, particularly of the second tier and top flight relegation battles, coupled with the personality and dressing room demeanour he has brought in spades, is something which would stand to benefit Daniel Farke's young group.

To that end, Burnley's relegation from the top flight means the Clarets will miss out on a guaranteed payment of £92 million from the Premier League, distributed to all 20 member clubs each season. Broadcast income is also substantial at the top table of English football and worth additional tens of millions compared to TV revenue in the Championship.

Once again, this strengthens Leeds' negotiating position with Burnley; one of their objectives this summer being to jettison players deemed surplus to requirements, as Roberts was in January following the acquisitions of Maxime Esteve and Lorenz Assignon.

Whether the aforementioned scenarios ultimately transpire, Burnley and Spurs are guaranteed, at a minimum, to miss out on £92 million and £13.5 million, respectively, due to their final positions in 2023/24. Money talks and willingness to do a deal before the final weeks of the summer window may have become increasingly palatable with recent developments in mind.

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