Chelsea example proves £500 million transfer spend won’t necessarily fix lingering Leeds United issue

The Whites left West London empty-handed in midweek as two spectacular Fulham efforts dumped Javi Gracia’s side out of the FA Cup. Leeds return to SW6 on Saturday knowing their profligacy in front of goal on Tuesday night cannot be repeated, however creating as many opportunities as they did against Marco Silva’s side will give them a fighting chance of taking all three points from Stamford Bridge. They must address their composure in the final third if they are to increase those chances further, though.

Leeds have failed to find the net in four of their last six matches across all competitions, while Potter’s men have scored just once in their last six outings. Far from anaemic in attack, it must be said, Chelsea have instead been wasteful, as Leeds were at Craven Cottage.

While the headline figure is that Chelsea have scored one goal in six matches, during those games the Blues have racked up a sizeable Expected Goals (xG) total of 8.95, per InfoGol. This means that ordinarily, Chelsea would have been expected to score nine times, based on the quality of their chances. A combination of expert goalkeeping and poor finishing has contributed to Chelsea’s current run and the law of averages dictates that it will come to an end soon. An xG deficit of nearly eight goals would represent a reasonable underperformance across an entire season, never mind six matches.

In Leeds’ favour, though, is the fact the Whites have restricted Fulham and Southampton to a limited number of opportunities in their two most recent outings; Saints and the Cottagers recording a combined xG total of 0.54 against Gracia’s Leeds.

Additionally, football is not played on a spreadsheet, which is just as well because Chelsea have spent in excess of £500 million on transfers this season alone. The momentum Leeds will carry through into Saturday from their win over Ruben Selles’ men and a fresh approach under Gracia is likely to be an intangible advantage compared to Chelsea’s situation where whispers of dressing room and boardroom unrest have leaked.

Chelsea’s fortunes will turn, but it is Leeds’ job to ensure their barren spell continues for at least one more fixture.