Met Office Leeds weather forecast: This is what the three month outlook means for the UK

The three month outlook for the UK was released earlier this month.

By Abi Whistance
Thursday, 5th May 2022, 10:17 am

The Met Office outlook provides an indication of possible temperature and rainfall conditions over the next three months.

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It is produced for contingency planners working within the government, local authorities and businesses who make risk-based decisions for longer timescales.

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A swan and cygnets swim across the Leeds-Liverpool canal at Skipton canal basin in the summer sunshine. Photo: Gary Longbottom

Below is everything you need to know about the Met Office's three month outlook, and what each category means.

How does the three month outlook work?

The Outlook uses three categories, linked to previous observed UK conditions, for possible UK temperature and precipitation in the coming season:

- Cold, near average or mild for temperature

- Wet, near average or mild for precipitation

The outlook does not identify weather for a particular day or week, instead it offers a more general

What does the new three month outlook say for May, June and July?

The three month summary suggests that May, June and July will be hotter than usual, with impacts from heat waves likely to be higher than usual also.

There is a slight reduction in the chance of a wet period, however due to higher temperatures any rain is likely to arrive in heavy showers or thunderstorms.


The Met Office predicts that there will be a 50% chance that the temperature will be near average.

Near average for the north of England at this time is between 12C and 14C.


The Met Office predicts that there will be a 65% chance that precipitation this season will be near average.

The average rate of precipitation in the north of England at this time is 200 to 250mm of rain, steering slightly towards a drier season than usual.