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Coronavirus infections in England halved in recent months, according to a study, but concerns remain about the threat from new variants.

Prevalence of infections dropped by 50% between March and early May, and is at its lowest since August, new data suggests.

But the figures come amid a warning from Boris Johnson that new variants “pose a potentially lethal danger”.

The Prime Minister said there is “increasing concern” in the UK about the variant first identified in India.

However, the European Medicines Agency said on Wednesday it was “pretty confident” that vaccines currently in use are effective against the Indian variant – a view echoed by some British scientists.

Professor Paul Elliott, director of Imperial College London’s React programme, cited the Indian variant when asked whether the study’s latest data supported a move into the next stage of easing lockdown restrictions.

He said: “It is a difficult question because we have low levels of prevalence in the community, and we’ve got low levels of disease in hospitals and deaths, so that’s good.

“But I think that the patterns in the Indian variant are cause for some concern.”

He added that further studies are needed to really understand the characteristics and the spread of the Indian variant which appears to be at least as transmissible as the Kent variant.

The React study looked at variants of coronavirus and found that of 115 positive swabs, 24 cases were identified as the Kent variant, and two of three cases in London were identified as the Indian variant of concern.

The experts said neither participant had been abroad in the previous two weeks.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) is reportedly due to hold an emergency meeting on Thursday to discuss the spread of the Indian variant amid fears it could impact the Government’s road map out of lockdown.

Overall, between the last round of the React study which looked at data from March, and the current round which looked at data from April to the beginning of May, swab-positivity dropped by 50% in England from 0.20% to 0.10%.

Experts estimate the corresponding R number to be 0.90.

The data includes 127,408 swab tests carried out across England between April 15 and May 3.

Researchers found there was a fall in all age groups except the 25 to 34-year-olds, with a “significant” fall in the 55 to 64-year-olds.

Prof Elliott, director of the React programme, told a press briefing: “This coincides with the rollout of the vaccine programme to the younger part of that age group.”

The data also suggests higher prevalence among participants of the Asian community.

Researchers said the divergence between the pattern of infections and a pattern of hospital admissions and deaths suggests the rollout of mass vaccination is preventing severe outcomes.

Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial College London, said: “What you can see in recent times – basically since the widespread rollout of the vaccine – and we showed this last time, that you see a decoupling of the relationship between the React infection and a lagged number of deaths.

“And this gap is showing how we can have more infections in the population with far fewer deaths.

“And we actually see that difference growing nicely now for hospitalisations as well, so for each infection in the community we are producing fewer hospitalisations and far fewer deaths.”

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the findings “demonstrate the impact our incredible vaccination rollout is having on Covid-19 infection rates across the country, with prevalence lowest amongst those more vulnerable people aged 65 and over”.

Meanwhile families bereaved in the pandemic welcomed Mr Johnson’s announcement that there will be an independent public inquiry into the handling of the crisis, but said the start date of spring next year is “simply too late”.

Jo Goodman, co-founder of the Bereaved Families for Justice group, who lost her father Stuart to Covid, said: “It sounds like common sense when the Prime Minister says that an inquiry can wait until the pandemic is over, but lives are at stake with health experts and scientists warning of a third wave later this year.”

Number 10 has defended the timescale, stating that “these sorts of inquiries do require a great deal of Government time with officials who are currently working on our Covid response”.

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“We’re assisting with road closures following a report of a problem with a window frame on a nearby building.”

Our reporter is currently at the scene.

Passengers have been stopped from accessing the station from New Station Street next to Laynes and are being directed around.

A loose panel outside the station is believed to be the reason for the closure.

The YEP has contacted British Transport Police for further information.

“Road closed due to police incident on New Station Street both ways from Boar Lane to Bishopgate Street. Bus services 4, 16, 19, 19A, 40 are all diverting via Mill Hill.”

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Professor Chris Whitty said it is not yet known whether the Indian variant could cause problems in autumn.

He said: “What we know is, with all the variants, that things can come out of a blue sky and you’re not expecting it and then something happens.”

Speaking about the B.1.617.2 variant first detected in India, he said: “It has gone up very sharply and I think that’s a reason for us to be very careful about it.”

He said the current thinking is that it is “highly transmissible”, at least as transmissible as the B.1.1.7 variant (first detected in Kent) and possibly more but that is not yet known.

He added: “At this point in time our view is it is less likely to be able to escape vaccination than some of the other variants, particularly the South African one, but the data are not properly in there so I think, you know, we need to be cautious until we’ve seen clear data that give us an answer one way or the other.”

He said: “Of course we don’t know whether this is going to cause significant problems in the autumn.”

Prof Whitty said the way to deal with it is to continue the work that is already being done in terms of identifying cases, isolating those cases, carrying on with the vaccine rollout and ensuring there is the capacity to pick up variants and “revaccinate as necessary when the autumn comes”.

He added: “The way to minimise the number of variants that circulate is obviously to get on top of this as a global problem and that is something which all of us are absolutely determined to support.”

England’s chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty said the four tests had been met which enabled the next stage of lockdown easing to proceed.

He cautioned that it remains important to move forward “carefully and steadily”.

Of the vaccine rollout, he said it is clear the process has been “very successful” and added that there is “very clear data from real-world settings” showing the effectiveness of the vaccines in preventing hospital admissions and deaths.

Speaking about coronavirus variants, he said the variant first detected in India is one “we need to keep quite a close eye on”.

He said: “This is actually spreading from very small amounts but it is beginning to spread in certain parts of the country and we need to keep quite a close eye on this.

“So the point about this is: the threats are significantly reduced but there are still some residual issues that we need to keep a very close eye on and therefore we need to go carefully and steadily, as the Prime Minister has said.”

Prime Minister Boris Johnson indicated he would not bring forward the June 21 date for the final step of easing the restrictions.

He told the Downing Street press conference: “The secret of the success that we’ve had so far is that we’ve been guided by the data and we’ve given time to see the effect of each successive stage on the road map.”

Mr Johnson said next Monday’s easing is “a very considerable unlocking” which will bring “a lot of extra movement, a lot of extra contact”.

“We think it’s prudent, we think we can do it, but it’s got to be done in a way that’s cautious and I think that we will want to have time to see the effects,” he added.