How many points do Leeds United need to survive? Remaining fixtures for Nottingham Forest and Everton

Leeds United are in deep trouble as they prepare for their final three games of the Premier League season.

The Whites were hoping to avoid more final day drama after last season, but with three games to go, they are not only on their third manager of the season, but they are in 19th place and two points from safety after Everton and Nottingham Forest won on Monday.

Not only that, but the Whites have a very difficult run-in, meaning new boss Sam Allardyce has his work cut out to save Leeds from relegation. Here we take a look at what it will take.

Current table

Here is how the bottom of the Premier League table look as of the morning of Tuesday, May 9.

What Leeds need to survive

Mathematically, Leeds’ survival is now out of their hands, given every team outside the relegation zone can achieve more points than them, going into the final three games with at least a two-point head start.

Though, it’s unlikely any of the teams battling for survival are going to win all of their final three. Realistically, West Ham United are safe at this point, only needing two more points to be mathematically safe. For Leeds, the equation will depend on the results obtained by Everton and Nottingham Forest, in particular, but data specialists FiveThirtyEight predict Forest will finish 17th on 35 points.

Given Forest’s goal difference, Leeds could achieve the same total and survive, should the data prove right, and that would mean a win and two draws or two wins and a defeat from the Whites’ last three games. The trouble is, Forest are already on 33 points, meaning just one win will take them to 36. That could leave Leeds with a lot to do, then requiring them to win at least two of their last three. Everton are currently on 32 points, but they arguably have the most favourable run-in, despite facing Manchester City next.

Leeds will need at least a minimum of 32 points and a better goal difference than Everton to stay up, providing the Toffees pick up zero points from their final three games while Leicester would need just one point. The Whites can achieve a maximum of 39 points and hope the sides above them drop points before the end of the season.

Remaining fixtures

Nottingham Forest

Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H), Palace (A)

Everton

Man City (H), Wolves (A), Bournemouth (H)

Leicester City

Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), West Ham (H)

Leeds United

Newcastle (H), West Ham (A), Tottenham (H)

Southampton

Fulham (H), Brighton (A), Liverpool (H)