Why the run-in does not favour Leeds United more than Championship promotion rivals - Graham Smyth

There is a temptation, at this stage of the season, to take a look at the games that make up the final stages and it’s natural to try and draw conclusions about who has the most difficult set of fixtures and who will enjoy a comfortable conclusion to their campaign.

Already we’ve seen analysis in some quarters that the run-in favours Leeds.

There is evidence to that argument, but it’s still flawed.

Of the top teams, Leeds do have the fewest games against top-seven sides, with only the visit of Fulham to concern themselves with.

West Brom still have to travel to Brentford and host Fulham, who will take on all six of their fellow top-seven teams before it all ends on May 2.

But if you’re categorising games against promotion hopefuls as the biggest obstacles to Leeds United’s latest great escape attempt, you’re ignoring some facts.

Firstly, Leeds always have been and always will be the biggest obstacle standing in the way of promotion.

They have only to maintain their current performance levels and take their chances and a Premier League spot is there for the taking, yet putting the ball in the net has proved problematic for much of almost two full seasons under Marcelo Bielsa.

Without disrespecting some very good football teams in this division, Leeds should and would be a mile in front of them all, had they not been so wasteful.

And there’s been little evidence of late to suggest the problem will vanish suddenly between now and May. It was all too obvious yet again at Middlesbrough last night.

The second thing that tends to get ignored when people study the run-in is a problem that can be summed up in two words: Wigan Athletic.

For the second season in succession, Paul Cook’s Latics made a mockery of the league table and the assumption that games against the top seven present more of a problem to Leeds than any other game.

In April 2019 they had Cedric Kipre sent off on 14 minutes, went behind to a Patrick Bamford goal on 17 minutes and then Gavin Massey made the unthinkable happen with two second half goals that sent Leeds out of the top three.

Bielsa was unable to give an explanation on that day and found himself struggling for words again on February 1 when his Leeds had 77 per cent of the possession, 19 shots, 13 corners and lost 1-0 to a calamitous goal.

It was ‘impossible’ for United not to score, he said. But this is the Championship, where nothing is impossible and all your nightmares can come true.

So when you look at Leeds’ run-in, there is as much peril in home games against lowly Luton Town – who beat Brentford this week – Stoke City and Barnsley, as there is in Fulham’s trip to Elland Road.

Relegation-battling teams are fighting to stay in the division that Leeds want to exit and will play accordingly.

Also keep in mind, this is Leeds United. They are, no matter the protestations of opposition fans, a ‘cup final’ to so many teams.

There has to be a reason why none of the nine teams to have beaten Leeds this season have gone on to record a win in their very next match and only two – Arsenal and Fulham – managed to pick up a draw in the game that followed their encounter with Bielsa’s men.

You could of course explain that away with the fact that the Championship is consistently inconsistent, but it might just suggest that anything following a game against Leeds is a little bit after the Lord Mayor’s show.

Many have shown a lack of ambition against the Whites, but none have shown any lack of motivation. That will continue to be the case. Even mid-table dwellers will have something to play for when they host ‘Bielsa & Co’ or travel to Elland Road.

Who wouldn’t want to be the team that scuppered the Leeds dream?

And, as that dream draws ever nearer, the men in white will find themselves having to cross unchartered terrain.

Getting close to promotion is something they’ve already achieved, but they haven’t, as a group, got over the line yet.

To make it happen they will have to be better than they were last season and do things they failed to do in the 2018/19 campaign.

So, regardless of who they have to play and where those teams are in the table when Leeds play them, the run-in will be as easy or as difficult as United make it. But if they run at their own pace, few will be able to keep up.