Premier League relegation predictions from data experts FiveThirtyEight good news for Leeds United but worrying for Newcastle United

Leeds United's chances of suffering Premier League relegation this season are rated at just one per cent by data experts FiveThirtyEight.
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Their Premier League simulation shows the Whites finishing on 48 points for the season, after last night's win over Newcastle United.

The 2-1 victory, thanks to goals from wingers Raphinha and Jack Harrison, put Leeds on 26 points at the midway point of their Premier League return, but it also stretched Newcastle's winless run in all competitions to 11 games.

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FiveThirtyEight's predictions make for worrying reading for the Magpies. Their chances of falling back into the Championship are currently rated at 37 per cent.

Sheffield United and West Brom, who lost 5-0 to Manchester City last night, are as good as down according to the forecasters.

The Blades, rock bottom with five points to their name, are believed to have a 92 per cent chance of relegation. It's exactly the same situation for Sam Allardyce's Baggies, who came up from the second tier with Leeds last summer.

Fellow new boys Fulham currently occupy 18th place in the Premier League table and the probability of them lasting just a single season in the top flight is shown as 47 per cent.

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At the top end, FiveThirtyEight have Manchester City as title winners, with an 82 per cent probability.

BIG WIN - Leeds United's win moved them onto 26 points in the Premier League table and worsened the mood at Newcastle United. Pic: Bruce RollinsonBIG WIN - Leeds United's win moved them onto 26 points in the Premier League table and worsened the mood at Newcastle United. Pic: Bruce Rollinson
BIG WIN - Leeds United's win moved them onto 26 points in the Premier League table and worsened the mood at Newcastle United. Pic: Bruce Rollinson

Last season FiveThirtyEight's model had Leeds winning the Championship title from an early stage and gave a 90 per cent probability of that outcome when football returned from the first Covid-19 lockdown.

Leeds travel to Leicester City on Saturday and the hosts have been given a 63 per cent probability of victory by FiveThirtyEight's data.

The system works by giving each club ratings for offensive and defensive strength and calculating the percentage of available points a team is expected to take, against an opponent, if a match was played over and over.

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Once they generate probabilities for every match, they run simulations to play out each league's season 20,000 times.

Leeds' goal this season is simply to remain a Premier League club. Owner Andrea Radrizzani said this week that his dream of European football at Elland Road was the loan term aim that can be underpinned by two or three top flight seasons.

"With my initial investment four years ago I started a new journey, the first phase was promotion, now it's important to stay in the Premier League," he said.

"Together with our friends from San Francisco [the 49ers] we have more opportunities to support the club where the investment in players is not only important but the revenue you can bring to the club. We need to close the gap to the top clubs, they make much more revenue, therefore they have more opportunities in the transfermarket than us. We need to establish a strong management and support them together to generate more revenue and the club itself will have this opportunity. But we need to stay in the Premier League for two or three years."

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