TRUST Leeds United to bag a much-needed win on Saturday and take advantage of near enough even money at home to bottom of the league Blackpool.
Blackpool are as big as 15-4 with Sky Bet, Boylesports and BetVictor and there’s a temptation to think they are value.
After all, pre-season promotion fancies Fulham couldn’t beat a clearly improving Blackpool with ten men on Wednesday so why should United?
Lee Clark might be about to inspire a transformation in fortunes at the Tangerines and there will be those interested in backing them at 4-1, not least Whites fans who fancy a saver in case matters go very pear shaped at Elland Road.
But often ‘must - win’ games result in the win required by such teams and Neil Redfearn’s predicament will be pretty gloomy if the Whites can’t take three points from this one.
The fact remains that Blackpool at home is the easiest game in the league on paper and if Redfearn could script a game to get off the mark as permanent head coach it would be this one.
Furthermore, while Blackpool battled on to seal a cracking point at Fulham on Wednesday, those efforts could have taken their toll come their trip to Elland Road.
Blackpool will have had one less day to recover than Leeds who drew 2-2 with Charlton Athletic on Tuesday - plus a trip up and down the country to London to recover from.
Playing 49 minutes with ten men will also have been energy-sapping and there’s no denying that United’s first win is close.
Charlton - clearly a better side than Blackpool - were very nearly beaten at Elland Road on Tuesday and the head tells you that 5-6 with BetVictor about a Leeds win tomorrow is not a bad bet.
There’s an argument that the Whites should be a lot shorter so take the plunge and go for all or nothing as part of a very important Saturday afternoon.
For what it’s worth, a draw can be backed at 14-5 with Bet365 while Billy Sharp and Mirco Antenucci share favouritism in the first goalscorer market at 5-1.
Antenucci’s a fair shout at those odds but perhaps a better investment is Alex Mowatt to score at any time.
Fresh from Tuesday night’s double, Mowatt is 14-1 to score first which is also very tempting but there could be plenty of goals tomorrow and 5-1 about him netting full stop with Bet365 looks fair.
The midfielder clearly has the appetite for goal at present and Redfearn wants him into double figures for the season.
Hopefully this is a good chance to add to that growing tally.
Leeds to beat Blackpool (5-6 with BetVictor).
Alex Mowatt to score at any time (5-1 with Bet365).