ODDS of 13-8 look more than fair about Leeds United finally ending their winless run at home to Birmingham City on Saturday.
Leeds have not won in six Championship games and seven matches in all competitions but certainly in their last two outings the performances have been encouraging.
It could be argued that the Whites were unlucky not to win at both Bolton in the league last weekend and also at Sunderland in the FA Cup third round and Leeds might have been odds-on to beat Birmingham had that been so.
Obviously, instead Neil Redfearn’s men left with a draw and FA Cup exit respectively and plenty will be unprepared to back Leeds at home considering the outcome of their last two games at Elland Road - losses to Fulham and Wigan.
But United are playing better football now under a new formation and the fact is that 13-8 looks a fairly good price about a team who previously had been pretty strong at home.
It wasn’t that long ago that leaders Derby County were banished 3-0 at Leeds and for all that Birmingham are on the improve under Gary Rowett, they are no Derby.
Sat 12th in the table but only nine points ahead of Leeds - which will hopefully become six - the Blues have admittedly won their last three but one of those wins came in the FA Cup at Blyth and Championship rivals Wigan and Notts Forest who they beat are not exactly flying.
Go back four games and Birmingham were hammered 4-0 at home to Derby - who Leeds beat 2-0.
Birmingham are definitely getting better, but despite this week’s negativity, so too are Leeds.
And above all else, Saturday’s Elland Road clash really is a ‘must win’ contest for the Whites who then welcome leaders Bournemouth on Tuesday evening.
There’s a feeling that when teams who are not beyond repair need to win that they often do and it will be a grim situation if United don’t win on Saturday.
Not that victory will come easy and Redfearn himself has highlighted the dangers of Birmingham’s 11-goal Clayton Donaldson who is 13-2 to score first and 23-10 to net any time at all with BetVictor.
That’s tempting as rarely is anything straight-forward with Leeds, for whom a goalscorer bet is a real riddle, not even knowing who will start.
Mirco Antenucci is as short as 5-1 favourite to net first when he didn’t even feature at Bolton and there will be those tempted by his replacement last weekend, Steve Morison, at 8-1 with Bet365.
But rather than mess about too much, this week’s advice is simple - back Leeds at 13-8 with BetVictor as a Whites victory appears imminent.
Just don’t look at the Championship table or the bank balance if the winless run is extended to seven.
Keep the faith. MOT.
Leeds to beat Birmingham - 13-8 with BetVictor.
Clayton Donaldson to score any time - 23-10 with BetVictor.