Leeds United given 1-in-3 odds of Premier League return but takeover paralysis leaves club at disadvantage

Relegation from the Premier League has been confirmed. But how likely is it Leeds United make an immediate return to the top flight next season?
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Since the Premier League’s inception 31 years ago, there have been a total of 94 relegations from the division. Leeds’ demotion on Sunday afternoon at Elland Road was their second, putting an end to their three-year stay following promotion in 2020.

Other teams such as Norwich City, West Bromwich Albion, Watford and Fulham have taken on something of a yo-yo existence during the Premier League era, dropping into the Championship – formerly known as the First Division – before bouncing back into the big time.

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Leeds have already targeted promotion during 2023/24 in their unsigned statement released shortly after the final whistle last weekend.

Leeds United react as the team are relegated from the Premier League (Photo by OLI SCARFF/AFP via Getty Images)Leeds United react as the team are relegated from the Premier League (Photo by OLI SCARFF/AFP via Getty Images)
Leeds United react as the team are relegated from the Premier League (Photo by OLI SCARFF/AFP via Getty Images)

They believe the club is in a ‘strong position’ to return to the bright lights of the Premier League at the first time of asking, but historically speaking, that is a task much easier said than done.

Since the 1992/93 season, 94 teams have been relegated from the top tier – some more frequently than others. Of those demoted, only 26 have returned to the top flight at the first time of asking, indicating Leeds have a 27.7 per cent chance of returning to the Premier League in 2024.

Admittedly, ten of those immediate bounce-backs have occurred in the past ten seasons, suggesting Leeds’ odds in the modern era of inflated revenues and parachute payments are slightly greater, at around one-in-three.

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North-east rivals Newcastle United returned to the Premier League at the first time of asking in both of their Championship campaigns, during 2009/10 and 2016/17, while Fulham have secured immediate bounce-backs in two of the last four seasons.

Norwich City and more recently Burnley, have twice secured an immediate return after one season of Championship football in the past ten years, also.

There is certainly a precedent for making a comeback, particularly with the financial advantage Leeds are likely to have over the majority of the league next season. Initial forecasts predict Leeds’ revenue to exceed £100 million next season, after recording a club-record £189.2 million figure in their 2021/22 season accounts.

Where that headline number will begin to plummet rather dramatically is if Leeds remain in the second tier for an extended period of time. Parachute payments only go so far and broadcast revenue is a fraction of what it is in the Premier League.

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It must also be said, despite heightened revenues, Leeds’ costs are expected to be inflated compared to the rest of the league, even with reported 50-60 per cent cuts to players’ basic wage packets, unless the club’s high earners are ruthlessly axed in the coming months.

At this stage, while the wounds of relegation are still fresh, Southampton and Leicester City will be the Whites’ closest rivals in 2023/24, competitively speaking. It is highly unlikely all will make a return to the Premier League next season, though. Never before have all three relegated teams from the Premier League made an immediate bounce-back the following year.

In six of the last 31 seasons, two newly-relegated teams have been promoted back to the Premier League after a 46-game stay in the second tier, although that has only happened twice in the last 10 campaigns.

It's most likely two of Leicester, Leeds and Southampton will remain in the Championship beyond 2023/24.

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As for Leeds, there is much to be done and to get into better shape than their direct rivals they will need clarity over the club’s ownership situation to avoid a state of takeover paralysis defining their summer. Subsequently, the arrival of a sporting director or equivalent is essential, who can assess the pool of potential managerial candidates and appoint one to lead the club back into the Premier League.