It's Leeds United v Sheffield United in the promotion race - but what part will Birmingham and Preston play?

A nine-point deduction pulled the rug from under Birmingham City’s season but irrespective of their final league positions, both they and Preston North End will have a hand in deciding the Championship’s top two.
Leeds United's Kalvin Phillips tussles with Sheffield United's Chris Basham.Leeds United's Kalvin Phillips tussles with Sheffield United's Chris Basham.
Leeds United's Kalvin Phillips tussles with Sheffield United's Chris Basham.

A fixture list comprising of 552 games has found a way of sending the two clubs competing for the division’s second automatic promotion place to the same grounds to face the same opponents in the space of five days, a rare scenario in a footrace which is still too close to call. Leeds United and Sheffield United went toe to toe directly at Elland Road last month but are about to front up in a different way as they try to maximise their returns from St Andrews and Deepdale.

Leeds are in Birmingham on Saturday while Sheffield United go to Preston and will head to Preston on Tuesday night, 24 hours before Sheffield United play in Birmingham. The Yorkshire clubs are following in each other’s footsteps and under pressure to match each other punch for punch as their league reaches the stage where a single result could be crucial.

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The season is not quite there yet, despite Leeds regaining second place last weekend amid a flurry of drama, and this week is a gruelling test of their constitution, ending with a meeting at home to a refreshed and invigorated Sheffield Wednesday. Prior to that derby, Leeds have the task of matching, if not bettering, Sheffield United’s results from identical fixtures.

Birmingham City's Che Adams celebrates a goal at Norwich City. The striker scored twice in Birmingham's 2-1 win over Leeds United in September.Birmingham City's Che Adams celebrates a goal at Norwich City. The striker scored twice in Birmingham's 2-1 win over Leeds United in September.
Birmingham City's Che Adams celebrates a goal at Norwich City. The striker scored twice in Birmingham's 2-1 win over Leeds United in September.

Birmingham clung on to the tails of the top six for several months but a points deduction for a breach of Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations and a run of five straight losses – perhaps symptomatic of a campaign which was blown apart by EFL sanctions – has given the club no more to do than make good their second-tier status. City are five points above the relegation zone but statistically better than that ranking and it was Birmingham who drew first blood from Bielsa in the Championship.

The system which Garry Monk used on that September afternoon, a straight 4-4-2 with Che Adams and Lukas Jutkiewicz up front, is the formation which has served him steadily throughout and turned Adams into a forward who Premier League clubs might bid for with intent when the summer transfer window opens.

Adams made the most of a world of space in front of Bielsa’s defence at Elland Road, scoring twice with the help of a mistake by Bailey Peacock-Farrell to seal a 2-1 win and register two of his 21 league goals. The 22-year-old grew up in Sheffield United’s academy but was sold to Birmingham after a series of bids in 2016 and votes amongst managers in the EFL’s three divisions earned him a place on the shortlist for the Championship’s player-of-the-year award.

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His impact against Leeds was so great that Bielsa sacrificed Kalvin Phillips after just 34 minutes, accepting that he had made a mistake by using a four-man defence against Birmingham’s front two. That experience might be in Bielsa’s mind as he prepares to take his squad to St Andrews, to meet a team with more nous than their form gives them credit for.

Monk’s players have not picked up a point since winning at Bristol City on February 26 but they ran West Bromwich Albion close at The Hawthorns last Friday, leading twice before losing 3-2 to a Jake Livermore winner. Monk was aggrieved by the award of a penalty while Albion were 2-1 down, given for a foul which appeared to occur outside the box.

“It’s a very tough one for us, a difficult one for the players to take,” Monk said. “People will talk about the five defeats but we’ve had another poor decision go against us. If we continue to show that spirit, we’ll get to where we want to get to.”

Birmingham, at present, can aim for nowhere other than mid-table but Preston have more to play for and, on the basis of form, are the bigger threat to Leeds and Sheffield United. North End finally hit the wall last week after 12 matches unbeaten, losing 2-1 at Reading, but they are 10th in the table and within touching distance of sixth place, unrecognisable from the side wallowing in the bottom three when Leeds trounced them 3-0 in the second month of the season.

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Preston’s strength has been their defensive line and their concession of just seven goals in a spate of wins which accounted for Norwich City, Middlesbrough, Stoke City and Birmingham. Leeds and Sheffield United have beaten Alex Neil’s team at home already but hosted the Lancashire club at a time when Preston’s form had deserted them. North End found their stride after Christmas, though Neil has little margin for error with three points and three teams between his squad and sixth position.

Leeds have a potential advantage in the timing of Tuesday’s trip to Deepdale, the night before Sheffield United meet Birmingham. Victories in both of their next two games would edge Bielsa’s players at least four points clear of the Blades by the time Chris Wilder’s kick off at St Andrews, realigning the pressure significantly.

“You can see it’s going to be tight,” Wilder said, and Bielsa agrees. The clubs tried not to look at each other last Saturday as goals flew in and the live table surged this way and that, but it will not be easy for either team to maintain tunnel vision as they embark on like-for-like, back-to-back fixtures against sides with the capacity to stir up an inter-Yorkshire scrap. “Every game we play, we just have to play the game,” Bielsa said last weekend. As time ticks on, it becomes harder and harder to do.