NHS waiting list could be 10 million people long by end of year, say staff

Projections by the NHS Confederation show that the combined effects of keeping up social distancing, the backlog of treatments and challenges around staffing mean the list is expected to rise from around 4.2 million currently to around 10 million by Christmas.

This is the most realistic scenario, and assumes the health service making a steady return to full capacity within the next 12 months.

The pessimistic scenario, according to the NHS Confederation, assumes a second wave of Covid-19 and a lack of treatments or a vaccine, pushing the waiting list to around 11 million by the end of the year.

The most optimistic scenario assumes a faster return to normal, where the waiting list will be around eight million by the end of the year.

Niall Dickson, Confederation, said: “The NHS wants to get back to providing these vital services - the virus has inflicted pain and suffering throughout the UK, but we also know the measures to combat it have come at a terrible cost to those who have not been able to access the care, treatment and support they need and to many whose conditions have gone undiagnosed.

“There is a real determination to rise to this challenge, but it will need extra funding and capacity, not least in rehabilitation and recovery services in the community where so much of the coming demand will be felt.”

It comes as 40,883 people with coronavirus in all settings had died as of 5pm on Monday, the Government said yesterday, an increase of 286. In Yorkshire, there had been 2,680 such deaths in hospitals as a further 14 were reported yesterday.

Meanwhile, Education Secretary Gavin Williamson has told MPs that primary schools in England will not be able to welcome all pupils back for a month before the summer holidays.

The report from the Confederation, which represents health and care leaders, warns that the health service in England “faces an uphill battle” as it continues to manage thousands of sick and recovering Covid-19 patients while also trying to restart services such as those for cancer, stroke and heart disease.

It warned that services will operate with much reduced capacity - possibly around 60 per cent of normal - because of the need for infection control measures, including social distancing to keep patients and staff safe.

The health leaders called on the Government to prepare the public not to expect the same level of service for many months, adding that some staff are so exhausted and traumatised from caring for coronavirus patients that they will need support.

In its study and accompanying letter to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the NHS Confederation warns that it will not be possible to simply “switch on” NHS services immediately.

A Department for Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “Thanks to the hard work and dedication of NHS staff, hospitals were not overwhelmed during the peak of the Coronavirus outbreak.

“Guidance has already been issued to the NHS on how they should start to restore urgent services in a safe way.

“We will continue to provide the resources, funding and support our health service needs.”