Leeds Covid vaccination drive offers 'hope' as public health director Victoria Eaton gives latest assessment

More than nine months since the first national lockdown began, Leeds' director for public health recognises that people are in need of hope as we live under the shadow of the Covid-19 pandemic.
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Today Victoria Eaton tells the Yorkshire Evening Post that there are positive signs to hold on to locally, despite reports from other parts of the country painting a frightening picture of rapidly rising cases, many more deaths and hospitals coming close to being overwhelmed.

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"I think we know it's going to be a really tough next few weeks and as things do level off, a couple of bumpy months really as we get the vaccine rolled out," she said.

A Covid vaccine is administered at the Thackray Museum of Medicine in Leeds, where a vaccination centre has been set up. Picture: Danny Lawson/PA WireA Covid vaccine is administered at the Thackray Museum of Medicine in Leeds, where a vaccination centre has been set up. Picture: Danny Lawson/PA Wire
A Covid vaccine is administered at the Thackray Museum of Medicine in Leeds, where a vaccination centre has been set up. Picture: Danny Lawson/PA Wire
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"The hope is certainly by mid spring we'll have vaccinated the most vulnerable people. It will have a real impact on death rates and on hospital pressures because we'll have vaccinated the people most likely to come into hospital."

Acknowledging the "human side" to the crisis and the impact of the latest lockdown measures, she said: "People are tired and they need hope."

She pointed to two "silver linings" to be found in the city's present position, saying: "Leeds is nowhere near in the position of other parts of the country and we don't expect to be either, and secondly we do have the hope of the vaccine and it's going really well across the city."

Cases of Covid-19 in Leeds had fallen to "incredibly low" levels during the summer, she said, but began to pick up again from September before peaking in October

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The potential for such a rise had been anticipated due to the city's particularly large student population - around 80,000 students studying at six universities. While some students originally from Leeds do travel elsewhere, it still results in a net gain of 30,000 people during term times.

Although there was a "really big" increase, Ms Eaton said those student population cases did come down "pretty swiftly" - helped along by the introduction of the second national lockdown on November 5.

Between October 12 and November 5, the city had been placed in Tier 2 but rates had simply hovered around the same level rather than rising or falling.

"The general view from the evidence is that if you have a level of infection and you need to have it so it doesn't get any worse then Tier 2 will help you do that, but you can keep other things open like schools and businesses that are important," Ms Eaton said.

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"Obviously if you want to bring things down, you need to bring in stricter measures."

Although official data shows cases in Leeds were higher in October than during the first wave, the capacity for testing last spring was significantly lower so many cases at that time were likely to have gone unrecorded.

There have been 45,366 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the city to date, including 449 more yesterday. It equates to 5,720 cases for every 100,000 people in Leeds.

Those cases have led to 3,730 people being hospitalised in Leeds by January 3 - the latest date for which figures are available. Some 152 patients remained under the care of Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust (LTHT) as of January 5, including 13 who were in mechanical ventilation beds.

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Its chief medical officer, Dr Phil Wood, said: “Cases of Covid-19 continue to rise in Leeds and across the wider region and, along with the rest of the NHS, we are seeing an increase in patients admitted to our hospitals with coronavirus.

“Whilst we are prepared for the winter and have plans in place, it is vital we are all doing our bit to follow Government guidance to reduce the spread of Covid-19 so that we can continue to provide care for those who need it most. If you need NHS services, we are here for you."

Of course, the trust's own staff are not immune to the virus and rising cases in the community are also likely to mean rising absences due to sickness or the need to self-isolate.

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Almost half of the 361,387 staff absences recorded at the trust between March 19 and December 2 were down due to Covid-related sickness and self-isolation, according to NHS England statistics.

Dr Wood added: “Like anyone else in the country, our staff must self-isolate if they are showing symptoms of Covid-19 or they have tested positive for coronavirus. By staying at home staff are doing their bit to protect their colleagues, their patients and ensure our services can continue for those who need it."

The figures that loom largest in the minds of many people though are the daily death statistics delivered by NHS England and the Government.

By Christmas Day, 1,224 fatalities Leeds had been recorded where Covid-19 was listed on the death certificate as a cause.

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Separate NHS England data shows LTHT's highest daily number of deaths among patients who had tested positive for the virus was the 16 reported on April 4 - during the first wave.

Describing that first wave as having been "much more challenging in many ways", Ms Eaton said: "We had more deaths sadly in the first wave and more people seriously ill in intensive care so even though the case rates are higher now, we're testing more people and the deaths and people in intensive haven't been as high."

Availability of personal protective equipment was one of the biggest issues facing healthcare professionals and other frontline workers at that time.

"It was such a problem in the first wave and that's now fully resolved," Ms Eaton said. "We've got great PPE supply and we're protecting people in social care.

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"When you think about some of our most difficult times, it was when we were struggling with some of the basis like that."

It does not mean to say the second peak is without its challenges though, particularly because it has come in the winter months when the NHS often comes under pressure without the added demands of a pandemic.

Ms Eaton said: "There's more risk of spreading and indoor mixing. It's harder for people - the days are short, the nights are dark, people are tired. There's more challenges in the weather.

"It has brought some of these new challenges to keep people going and adds to the fatigue."

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There is also the threat of the new highly transmissible Covid variant that fuelled the dramatic rise in cases seen in the South before Christmas.

"It means that actually people have to be much more vigilant now, even though they're tired - but we do know we have the positive of the vaccine," Ms Eaton said.

Cases here in Leeds have more than doubled from a rolling seven-day rate of 143.2 per 100,000 people on December 5 - the day that the second national lockdown ended - to 346 per 100,000 people as of yesterday.

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Ms Eaton said: "We know in Leeds that we do have some cases of the new variant with us, although the levels of that are much, much lower than in London and the South East of the country. They're also lower than in places like York and North Yorkshire.

"Having said that, there's still cases with us so it's reasonable to think some proportion of that growing may have been influences to an small extent by the new variant.

"The most likely reason - which we anticipated and were planning for as we came towards Christmas and restrictions were opened up - was people mix more while going Christmas shopping or with the lifting of restrictions at Christmas itself. The virus spreads indoors."

While the rises now are still "very concerning", Ms Eaton stressed they were nowhere near those being seen elsewhere and were largely in line with what was expected from the Christmas mixing.

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"We do expect the next couple of weeks will be tough but with the new national lockdown and the end of the influence of Christmas, we do expect cases to flatten over the next 10 days to two weeks," she said.

"We shouldn't see the sort of increases that have happened in London or the South East. The lockdown has come much earlier in the curve for us - but we still need everybody's support of restrictions. You can have whatever restrictions you like but if people aren't following them, it goes through the roof."

Reflecting on the response to date in Leeds, she added: "It's been wonderful, the level of support that the public and all sorts of people and partners have brought to this. It's been a real Leeds effort and it's so important to keep that."

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