Could the UK get a second national lockdown? What the experts say as France imposes countrywide restrictions

France became the latest European country to enter a second national lockdown – could the UK follow suit?
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From midnight on Thursday (29 October) France was placed under a second national lockdown.

President Emmanuel Macron broke the news to the French public, stating that the country risked being "overwhelmed by a second wave that no doubt will be harder than the first".

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The lockdown will see the closure of “non-essential” businesses including bars and restaurants. Factories and schools will remain open however.

French president Emmanuel Macron confirmed the country's move into a second lockdown on Thursday night (Getty Images)French president Emmanuel Macron confirmed the country's move into a second lockdown on Thursday night (Getty Images)
French president Emmanuel Macron confirmed the country's move into a second lockdown on Thursday night (Getty Images)

The announcement came as pressure increased on the Westminster government to implement a national lockdown in order to stem the spread of the coronavirus across the country.

How is the three tier system performing?

The three-tier system currently in place is being called into doubt after a study by Imperial College London found that almost 100,000 people are catching Covid-19 every day in England.

Experts are suggesting a more national approach is needed to address the soaring infection rate.

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Interim data from round six of the Imperial College London React study estimates that in England there are around 96,000 new infections per day. Infections were found to be doubling approximately every nine days.

The data also showed early signs that numbers in low-risk areas are following trends observed in the worst-affected regions.

Could the government implement another national lockdown?

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has long suggested that a second national lockdown won’t be necessary.

Speaking in July he said that such measures were unlikely but refused to rule out such a move during an interview with the Telegraph in July.

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The Number 10 Downing Street resident told the Telegraph "I can't abandon that tool any more than I would abandon a nuclear deterrent. But it is like a nuclear deterrent, I certainly don't want to use it. And nor do I think we will be in that position again."

In September his tone hardened when he suggested that a second lockdown may be necessary following the introduction of new social distancing measures.

He said: "I want to be absolutely clear, these measures are not another national lockdown. The whole point of them is to avoid a second national lockdown.”

As it becomes clearer that Europe is experiencing a second wave of coronavirus, calls for a second lockdown have increased.

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Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick said the Government will “try everything in our power” to avoid a “blanket national lockdown”. But Home Secretary Priti Patel said they would rule nothing out.

Mr Jenrick said coronavirus rates are in a “bad place” all over the country but added that the Government is resisting another national lockdown.

He said the Government’s “very firm view” is that a short national “circuit-breaker” lockdown would be the wrong approach, saying “you can’t have a stop-start country”.

But asked if she would rule out another national lockdown, Ms Patel said: “Well I think at this stage of course we can rule nothing out because we are a Government that is focused on making sure that we stop the spread of this virus and also (that) we protect public health.

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“So we have been using, and we are using and we will continue to use, every single means available to us to do exactly that.”

Why are experts calling for a UK lockdown?

Government scientific adviser Dr Mike Tildesley has said more national restrictions are needed, with the current trajectory likely to put nearly everywhere in Tier 2 before Christmas.

The University of Warwick researcher, who sits on the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-M), told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “We are seeing the R number is greater than 1 everywhere. And, in a sense, some kind of national lockdown, a circuit-breaker or something along those lines, would actually have more effect in those parts of the country that have not yet progressed into Tier 2.

“R is greater than 1 everywhere and if we don’t take urgent action we’re most likely to see that as we’re approaching the festive period we’re probably going to be at least in Tier 2 pretty much everywhere in the country.

“So really we need to move away from these regional firefighting techniques to try to move to something more national.”