Leeds Met Office weather: Will it be a white Christmas? Full December forecast released

Some residents in Leeds will be hoping to wake up to a blanket of snow on Christmas Day, and forecasters have set out what to expect across the UK.

The winter so far has been unusually mild and the Met Office warns that below-average temperatures at the start of December could feel even colder than usual, compared with recent temperatures.

Technically, 2021 was the last white Christmas in the UK with six per cent of weather stations recording snow falling, but less than one per cent of stations reported any snow lying on the ground. The last widespread white Christmas in the UK was in 2010. It was extremely unusual, as not only was there snow on the ground at 83 per cent of stations (the highest amount ever recorded) but snow or sleet also fell at 19 per cent of stations.

The UK’s national weather service has released its long range forecast until December 25, which provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal across the UK. While it can’t provide city-level forecasts that far into the future, here’s an indication of what to expect.

Met Office long-range forecast for December 1-10

The Met Office says: “Thursday is likely to be cloudy for most with early morning fog possible, occasional rain in the northwest with a possibility of lighter, scattered showers extending further eastwards at times. During the following few days, a continuation of more settled weather is favoured for most of the UK, with a chance of unsettled weather mainly limited to the northwest in the form of rain, showers and potentially some stronger winds.

"Temperatures are expected to be around or a little below average through the start of December, which will feel cold compared to recent mild conditions, particularly in the south and east. If unsettled weather does return to the northwest, temperatures may recover to normal here.”

Met Office long-range forecast for December 11-25Forecasters say: “Confidence remains low for this period. Conditions are expected to be more settled than of late, with the potential for high pressure to be located close to the UK, at least at first.

"With time, however, we may see a return to frontal systems moving in from the west, with drier interludes between. Whilst temperatures may average out close to normal overall, colder conditions are possible at times, with a risk of overnight frost and fog.”

How likely is a white Christmas?

The Met Office says: “We can accurately forecast if snow is likely on any given Christmas Day up to five days beforehand. Since 1960, around half of the years have seen at least five per cent of the network record snow falling on Christmas Day. This means we can probably expect more than half of all Christmas Days to be a 'white Christmas'.

“However, the Dickensian scene of widespread snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day is much rarer. There has only been a widespread covering of snow on the ground (where more than 40 per cent of stations in the UK reported snow on the ground at 9am) four times since 1960—in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010.”