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Grand National: YEP tipster's verdict
Close your eyes, wiggle one of your left-hand fingers in the air for a few seconds and then plonk it down on the sweepstake list to the left.
There, that's your Grand National bet sorted.
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Seriously, the race is the hardest contest of the year to pick the winner of and while I may have napped Hedgehunter, Numbersixvalverde and Comply Or Die to win in recent years, one major factor was on our side – luck.
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Still, will that stop us from having a punt again this year? Of course not and favourite Big Fella Thanks is the number one tip with Black Apalachi as our back-up (4.15pm Aintree, tomorrow).
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Tipping the favourite in the National will win no awards for originality but give me a free 50 to go on anything tomorrow and it would go on the Big Fella at around the 7-1 mark.
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Actually, in truth it would go on anything BUT the National but you see what I am saying!
The main worry with Big Fella Thanks is that he was beaten by 23 lengths in this race into sixth last year.
However, the horse has clearly improved bundles since and has just about everything else in his favour.
He is trained by the champion trainer in Paul Nicholls and has probably the best jockey for the National in Ruby Walsh, who had the choice to ride many others.
His form is amongst the best and he also comes into the race on a sharp upward curve having slammed stablemate Pasco with ease last time over a trip that would have been well short of his best.
Officially, that run, which came after the National weights were published, has left him 5lbs well-in, meaning if the handicapper could do this race again he would carry 5lbs more weight.
He is also a young horse at eight years old and if there is a class act in the race, he is it though, of course, he will need all the luck in the world.
Luck has certainly not been on the other fancy Black Apalachi's side the last two years. the Dessie Hughes-trained chaser fell at the first in 2008 and then unshipped his rider at Becher’s in 2009.
However, he was absolutely tanking along last year and looked all over the winner before unshipping Denis O’Regan.
There is every chance that Black Apalachi would have hacked up and slammed Mon Mome into second and thus racing off just 1lb higher than last year he could be very well handicapped indeed.
True, his failures to complete the National course the last two years are hardly positives but the horse is basically a good jumper and has won over the National course, beating off Mr Pointment to win the Becher Chase in 2008.
Black Apalachi goes on any ground, his trainer is in form and O’Regan is a decent jockey so all in all odds of 12-1 are fair enough on him going third time lucky.
Black Apalachi is also 5lbs well-in by the way while other horses well-handicapped on the book at least are Vic Venturi (8lbs), Erics Charm (6lbs), The Package (6lbs) and Arbor Supreme (5lbs).
However, Timmy Murphy has chosen to ride Comply Or Die over The Package while Ruby also prefers Big Fella Thanks to Arbor Supreme.
Jockeys can get it wrong, but they know more than me.
Erics Charm is a bit of an old stager at 12, though that’s not to say he won’t run well, so that leaves Vic Venturi as the biggest danger of the “well-handicapped” bunch.
He is a stablemate of Black Apalachi and actually beat him in February with ease, but this distance will probably suit Apalachi better and the vibes are that Apalachi is the stable number one.
Still, at 20-1, Vic Venturi surely represents fair value each way.
Tony McCoy will also have his supporters having chosen to ride Don’t Push It over Can’t Buy Time who surely won’t stay and while Don’t Push It is a moody so- and-so, he has lots of talent and it doesn’t take a wild imagination to see him in the shake-up at about 16-1 under the champ.
I’ve also heard a good word for Cloudy Lane each-way at 40s while last year’s winner Mon Mome must also be respected – especially after a cracking third in the Gold Cup.
However, now carrying 7lbs more than last year, there is a suspicion that something else might be better handicapped.
Tomorrow’s other Aintree fancies are Peddlers Cross (1.45pm), Tataniano (2.15pm) and Zaynar (2.50pm) while Carnaby Street looks the best bet at Lingfield (3.15pm).
But tomorrow’s all about the National and for me it’s Big Fella Thanks and Black Apalachi.
Needless to say, both will now probably tip up at the first.
Enjoy the race and the very best of luck – you’ll need it!
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Weather for Leeds
Saturday 26 May 2012
Today
Sunny
Temperature: 8 C to 21 C
Wind Speed: 17 mph
Wind direction: East
Tomorrow
Sunny
Temperature: 9 C to 22 C
Wind Speed: 13 mph
Wind direction: East
