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Hay: The Forest lesson is driving Leeds United on
One of the most notable moments in Nottingham Forest's promotion last season was the admission by their manager three weeks earlier that second place in League One was beyond the reach of his club.
Despondent after a 1-1 draw at Bristol Rovers on April 8, Colin Calderwood came as close as he could to writing off automatic promotion, saying: "It looks a long way away. We've been trying to gain momentum towards the play-offs and we just need to make sure we secure that position."
In hindsight, Calderwood might seem like the instigator of an effective mind game but at the time he must have believed that second place had gone. With four games to play, the nine-point lead held by Carlisle United seemed insurmountable and as overwhelming as the 12-point deficit which faced Forest at the end of March.
That brief period of League One history should be all the encouragement Simon Grayson needs.
The noises coming from Leeds United about automatic promotion remaining on their agenda have, at times, been accompanied by the sound of straws being clutched, but Forest's surge last season is proof of the potential that might exist in the last month of this term.
Calderwood's squad finished second on the final day of the 2007-08 campaign, assisted by Carlisle's loss of form, Doncaster Rovers' brief loss of nerve but above all their own inspired brilliance. Forest's last seven matches yielded 19 points, enough to grasp second position by a margin of two.
There are revealing comparisons to be made between Forest and Leeds. After 38 games, Calderwood's players had recorded four victories fewer than Grayson's Leeds and were two points worse off. They were further adrift of Carlisle than Leeds are of Peterborough United and altogether more inconsistent.
It is a surprise to recall that Forest's promotion was achieved in spite of the month of March, in which their seven fixtures brought one victory.
Calderwood's secret was to secure from his players one half of the bargain he required – the same bargain that Grayson wishes to strike at Leeds. Forest won six of their final seven matches and crossed their fingers tightly. In the meantime, Carlisle were beaten three times in quick succession and Doncaster dropped 10 of the last 18 points they competed for. Forest profited from ensuring they were in the right place at the right time.
The catalyst for their revival was a 2-0 victory over Carlisle at Brunton Park, against a club with a fighting chance of automatic promotion. Leeds will host a comparable fixture at Elland Road tomorrow on a day when Grayson can hope to see the upper section of League One shift seismically.
Peterborough meet Leicester City tomorrow and Millwall travel to Crewe Alexandra, a fixture which neither Leeds nor MK Dons have the right to describe as easy. If ever United had the opportunity to attack second place with purpose and vigour, this weekend must be it.
It is an indisputable fact that Leeds are carrying a bigger handicap than the four most prominent teams, but it should not be assumed that natural pressure created by the run-in will take any less of an effect elsewhere.
Forest, for instance, were under extreme strain in the final month of last season, berated by long-suffering and volatile supporters and managed by a man who knew the loss of promotion would probably result in the loss of his job. Theirs was the greatest pressure to deal with, yet it was Carlisle and Doncaster who struggled to close their seasons out.
From here, Grayson's Leeds can do nothing more than buy a ticket in the hope of winning the lottery.
Their odds of success could shorten dramatically tomorrow, assuming that United keep their side of the bargain.
It is, as Grayson says and Forest proved, first and foremost about their own results.
*****
A pre-requisite for anyone brave enough to referee in the Football League is thick skin. For female officials, elephant hide might be more appropriate.
Amy Rayner should know. In 2006, Mike Newell described her appointment as an assistant referee for a match between Luton Town and QPR as "tokenism for the politically-correct idiots", saying: "I know that sounds sexist, but I am sexist. This is not park football so what are women doing here?"
Newell was fined 6,500 by the Football Association and later apologised, but his comments betrayed an underlying feeling of resentment towards Rayner which may not have been confined to Luton's former manager.
There was a suspicion of sexism at work last Saturday after Leeds United's victory over Crewe. The match was undoubtedly influenced by inadequate officiating but it was strange to hear assistant Rayner berated by Crewe's players and staff, rather than the match official Scott Mathieson.
Rayner's afternoon was not flawless, and there was something unsatisfactory about her changing touchlines at half-time, but as someone with 17 matches as a Blue Square Premier referee on her CV she was unlikely to be the perfect official.
Mathieson, on the other hand, is ultra-experienced and close to the end of his 12th season on the Football League's list, though a neutral observer at Gresty Road would not have thought so. It was widely agreed that his performance fell some way short of par and adversely affected the fixture.
Despite that Crewe's anger was directed at Rayner, whose involvement was described by Gudjon Thordarson as an "experiment". If by that he means that Rayner is not up to it then she is probably in the right job!
Questionable standards of refereeing are nothing to do with gender or long service. They have everything to do with consistency and capability, two words which cannot always be used to describe the Football League, or those who officiate in it.
*****
The player-of-the-month awards issued by the Professional Footballers' Association are not always the definitive titles the players' union would like them to be.
February's shortlist for League One, featuring Leeds United striker Jermaine Beckford, was a prime example. Nothing wrong with that, of course, except for the fact Beckford missed three of United's five games through suspension.
He is named again in the shortlist for March alongside another United player, Fabian Delph. Delph's inclusion is a particular surprise, not because his form has been especially disappointing but because other members of Simon Grayson's squad have clearly been more influential.
Were a poll taken amongst those who have attended United's recent matches, it is difficult to imagine the award for March going to anyone other than Robert Snodgrass. It is equally true that Neil Kilkenny and Jonathan Howson have regained their places and form in a way which has positively affected the club's results.
This is no slight on Beckford, pictured below, or Delph who, at this point in the season, are leading contenders for Leeds' player-of-the-year accolade.
But perhaps the PFA could rethink their online voting system to ensure that their prizes reward the most worthy recipients, rather than the usual suspects.
*****
Just how not-famous-anymore are Leeds United?
According to new figures released by Hitwise, an online data analysis firm, United's official website was the fourth most-visited of all English clubs in 2008, beaten by Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal.
The site came seventh in the top-10 list of general football pages viewed by Internet users, a list that only one other Premier League side – Tottenham Hotspur – is included in.
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Thursday 24 May 2012
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