Four Leeds United non-negotiables as potential Championship play-off dress rehearsal exposes weaknesses

Leeds' chances of automatic promotion this season are admittedly slim following Ipswich's win over Coventry in midweek, but at the very least it focuses hearts and minds on a series of non-negotiables United must abide by before the end of the regular season this Saturday.

Three points for Daniel Farke's men and an Ipswich loss on the final day will do it for Leeds, as improbable as that appears, given the comparative level of opposition the two sides face on Saturday lunchtime. At the very least, though, Leeds must seek to beat Southampton at Elland Road, if not for automatic promotion, then for pride and to gain momentum going into the play-offs - and because they may come to face Russell Martin's players again before the end of the season in a nerve-wracking Wembley Stadium finale.

Here's how they're going to do it.

Shoot

Southampton's first-choice goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu has been ruled out for nine months with a ruptured Achilles tendon and will be replaced by veteran stopper Alex McCarthy at Elland Road this weekend. The one-time Leeds loanee has conceded eight goals in four league matches since standing in for Republic of Ireland international Bazunu, losing three of the last four he has been stationed between the posts.

Factor in a Carabao Cup First Round exit to League Two Gillingham at the beginning of the season and McCarthy has conceded 11 goals in his five appearances for the Saints this term.

Notably, Southampton were beaten 5-0 by champions Leicester City last week, allowing five goals from a cumulative Expected Goals (xG) tally of 2.04. This suggests based on the quality of chances faced by McCarthy, the 34-year-old conceded an additional three goals.

Russell Martin's side also conceded 15 shots and four big chances - worth in excess of 0.30 xG - against Stoke City last weekend, losing 1-0. If Leeds can find their shooting boots, on current form there can be few better teams to face than a Saints outfit looking particularly porous without their first-choice 'keeper.

Let them have it

Southampton are a possession-heavy side, dominating the ball in all but two of their 45 Championship fixtures to date this season. In Leeds' 3-1 defeat at St. Mary's Stadium, Farke's men had 53 per cent of the ball, which is the most Southampton have allowed their opponents throughout 2023/24.

Against Rotherham United (80 per cent), Millwall (80 per cent) and Huddersfield Town (77 per cent) this season, Southampton failed to win despite their overwhelming possession of the ball, beaten by the South Londoners and held by the two Yorkshire clubs.

Additionally, Leeds tend to perform better when they have less possession, winning five and drawing one of their six games when forfeiting the majority share of the ball to their opponent this season.

Get it in the middle

Saints conceded seven shots inside the box and within the width of the six-yard area against Leicester last week, with four of the Foxes' five goals coming from there. If Leeds are to take maximum points against Martin's outfit, they stand their best chance by getting the ball - and bodies - into the centre of the box.

Tactical fouls

Southampton are one of the most-fouled teams in the league this season, on account of how much of the ball they tend to see. While conceding free-kicks will see Leeds penalised, it also gives the Whites an opportunity to disrupt Saints' flow during build-up.

It is a great deal more difficult for a side who have relied on 10+ pass build-up attacks this season to generate and maintain danger when their efforts are constantly thwarted by tactical fouls. The Saints are one of the slowest and most intricate teams in the division, recording 978 open play sequences in which ten-or-more successful passes have been made and 253 build-up attacks, according to Opta, which is the most by a considerable stretch on both counts.

In their most recent match versus Stoke, Southampton conceded just four fouls to the Potters' 14. Against Leicester, Enzo Maresca's champions committed 20 fouls to Saints' seven. Meanwhile, at the Cardiff City Stadium in their third-last fixture, Southampton were fouled 12 times en route to a 2-1 defeat. Disruption is the name of the game this weekend.

Leeds may yet be drawn against Southampton again before the end of the month, should the Saints come through their play-off semi-final with whichever team finishes in fifth place and Leeds navigate the choppy waters of a 3rd-vs-6th play-off semi. While Russell Martin's side will spend plenty of time on the training pitch between now and May 26, there is little chance the young coach adopts a new way of playing, therefore many of their weaknesses could be borne out at Wembley Stadium, as well as Elland Road.