MATHEMATICALLY Bolton Wanderers look a fair price at 11-10 to continue Leeds United’s away day blues at the Macron Stadium this weekend.
Us Whites fans are longing for a Championship victory and it’s not impossible that United might finally gel to the desired effect at Bolton on Saturday.
Neil Redfearn’s new 4-2-3-1 system seemed to be clicking in the second half of last weekend’s 1-0 FA Cup exit at Sunderland - a better team than Bolton - in which Leeds were unlucky to not take away at least a draw.
Live claims for a penalty were dismissed and Liam Cooper then had the frustration of hitting the post late on with ‘keeper Costel Pantilimon beaten all ends up.
If Leeds can put that second half showing into place from the off at Bolton then a rare away win might be in the offing but really Leeds should be bigger than the best-priced 14-5 on offer, especially at Bolton.
The fact remains that the Whites have the second worse away record in the Championship having taken only six points from a possible 36 and now they visit a team who are in red-hot form at home.
And it’s Bolton’s tally of 16 points from a possible 18 at home over their last six games that makes 11-10 seem a good wager on the facts and figures.
Wigan, Blackburn, Huddersfield, Cardiff and even Brentford have all been banished at Neil Lennon’s Bolton of late and in the Trotters’ last seven home games only Ipswich Town have taken a point.
That doesn’t bode well for travel sick Leeds and on that basis it’s hard to argue for anything other than a Bolton win at 11-10 though we’d be happy to be wrong if it means a sudden upturn in United’s fortunes.
Perhaps the best angle into any sort of investment from a Leeds perspective is Mirco Antenucci to score first at 7-1 or 12-5 to net any time at all.
United have not scored in around six hours of football which hardly bodes well but the Whites will break that cycle sooner or later and Antenucci would seem certain to the be the focal point of the Whites attack.
The Italian has not scored in five goals himself - not since netting in the 4-1 loss at Ipswich - but it is hoped that United’s new-look formation will lead to the creation of more chances.
Big names Eidur Gudjohnsen and Emile Heskey head the first goalscorer betting with both at 6-1 and you can see Heskey causing problems but Bolton’s goals have been rather shared about of late and perhaps Darren Pratley - who has scored twice in the last three games - is a reasonable shout at 12-1 to score first or 5-1 at any time.
But games involving Bolton of late have not resulted in many goals - there’s only been 11 in their last eight games - so under 2.5 goals at 31-40 with BetVictor seems fair enough odds on.
Perhaps we are talking Antenucci on target for Leeds and a 2-1 Bolton victory - a 9-1 shot with BetVictor - but after 16 points from a possible 18 at home recently Bolton, against travel sick Leeds, should probably be odds on.
Bolton to beat Leeds - 11-10 with BetVictor.
Darren Pratley to score first - 12-1 with SkyBet, BetVictor, Coral, or 5-1 to score any time with Coral.
Mirco Antenucci to score any time - 13-5 Boylesports.
Under 2.5 goals - 31-40 with BetVictor.