Both Rhinos' Grand Final wins, in 2004 and last year, came after they had lost the qualifying semi-final and then beaten Wigan at Headingley in the final eliminator – though it may be best to gloss over 2003, when Warriors won at Leeds in similar circumstances.

Losing the qualifying semi-final can be a blessing in disguise.

Of the 10 Grand Finals so far, dating back to Wigan's defeat of Leeds in the inaugural Old Trafford showpiece, half have been won by the team who took the quick route through.

Only twice – Leeds in 2003 and St Helens two years later – has the team losing the qualifying semi-final also failed to win the following week.

Though they have had a longer season than their rivals – with additional trial games and an early start due to World Club Challenge commitments – an extra game at this stage won't do Leeds any harm and may actually work in the defending champions' favour.

Leeds have had a couple of breaks over the past calendar month and winning at Saints in the qualifying semi would have given them another free weekend and meant they had only played twice in four weeks going into the biggest game of the season.

Their record over the last few years – in 2005 they won the qualifying semi and lost in the final – suggests taking the more precarious route to Old Trafford may be the best way of doing things for Leeds. But that's all irrelevant if they don't come up with the goods tomorrow night and, despite what happened in 2004 and 2007, probably the last team Rhinos would pick to face in a game as crucial as this one would be Wigan Warriors.

Brian Noble is an expert at beating Leeds and his current side have given Rhinos more problems than any other team in recent years. They have already done the business twice this season, including a victory at Headingley in Super League.

Crucially, Wigan are the team in form and with the momentum behind them, following fine wins over Bradford Bulls and Les Catalans Dragons in their opening two elimination ties.

The unknown element concerning Wigan is how much last weekend's tie will have taken out of them. Travelling to and from France – and then playing a tough, physical team like Catalans in Mediterranean heat – may not be ideal preparation.

Wigan have had one less day to prepare and recovery time from the journey will have to be factored into that, which could have an effect if the game is close late on. Rhinos faced a similar task before the Challenge Cup semi-final against Saints two months ago, and under-performed.

Last year, Leeds were pipped 10-8 at St Helens in the qualifying semi, but played so well, that game set the platform for a near-perfect performance in the 36-6 victory over Wigan the following weekend and the subsequent Old Trafford drubbing of Saints.

In 2007, Wigan over-achieved getting to within 80 minutes of the final and had nothing left when faced Leeds.

Despite their tough schedule, that's unlikely to be the case this time and Rhinos could be the team with doubt in their mind after the 38-10 drubbing at Knowsley Road six days ago.

Rhinos went into that game at full-strength, with good form under their belt and in confident mood, but they came up with one of their poorest displays of the season.

Against very good opposition, Leeds failed to perform. Leeds have a team full of match-winners, but none of their go-to players stood up.

It may have been a collective off-day, but Rhinos have been out-played by Saints three times already this season and they weren't at their best in the game they did win, in a Knowsley Road monsoon at the end of March.

Rhinos are good enough to beat Wigan tomorrow and to go on and retain their title in nine days' time. But it will be fascinating to see how much last week's defeat has taken out of them mentally and whether they can respond in the right manner.

This is the biggest test of coach Brian McClennan's mettle since he joined Leeds. The coach has had a good first season – a World Club Challenge win and second in the league table – but he will be measured by what happens tomorrow and, everyone connected with the club will hope, next week.

McClennan actually does have some high-level previous experience of this sort of thing. In the 2005 Tri-Nations, his New Zealand side were routed 38-12 by Great Britain in their final group game, a result which – had the Lions followed up by beating Australia – could have seen them crash out of the tournament.

McClennan managed to turn things around so successfully that the Kiwis bounced back with a 24-0 win over Australia in the final at Elland Road.

He will have to work some similar magic this week.