Sponsored by
What weather will winter 2011 bring? Read Paul Hudson’s verdict
DECEMBER 2, 2010: Heavy snow in Leeds.
After a hat-trick of harsh winters what will this one bring? Grant Woodward asks TV weatherman Paul Hudson for his verdict.
IT’S not nearly in the same stratosphere as Michael Fish’s famous howler when he told millions watching at home there wasn’t a hurricane on the way just hours before the Great Storm of 1987.
But like pretty much every other weather presenter you could mention, Paul Hudson has occasionally found himself with egg on his face.
In Frozen In Time, the popular book he wrote with fellow forecaster Ian McCaskill looking at the most severe winters in British history, Look North’s resident weather expert said all the indications were that harsh winters were a thing of the past.
Cue three of the worst winters in living memory as Britain shivered through months of deep snow and treacherous ice.
“It was almost as if someone was looking down and thought, ‘We’ll teach him a lesson’,” chuckles Hudson when he recalls his short-lived prediction.
“I suppose it just shows how fast things can change when it comes to the weather.”
Click here to register and have your say on the stories and issues that matter to you
That hat-trick of brutal winters has prompted him to update the book with new chapters examining what prompted this trend-bucking phenomenon, which – in an age when climate change is meant to be making the planet warmer – came as a shock to the system.
So what triggered it?
Hudson says it’s quite complicated, but basically boils down to unusual solar activity.
“The sun has different cycles in terms of high and low activity,” he says. “It’s been very quiet recently and that seems to be what’s caused the weather we’ve seen in the last few years.
“The last time it was like this was in the early 1800s when there was a period of low solar activity called the Dalton Minimum after the English meterologist John Dalton.
Dickensian
“What followed were two decades of really quite cold winters and the typical Dickensian scenes you still see on Christmas cards today.”
He says the theory, which cimate scientists are just waking up to, doesn’t necessarily mean every winter is going to be cold and snowy.
“What it might mean though is that colder winters become the norm over the next decade or so.”
Unlike most of us who dread the disruption caused by snow and ice, Hudson reacts to extreme weather with all the excitement of a kid in a sweet shop.
“It’s fantastic,” he says. “I’ve been a meterologist for 20 years and remember when I was at the Leeds Weather Centre where every winter we would say, ‘This must be a cold winter’ and it never came.
“So to see that type of thing happen again and to have three of them on the trot was quite remarkable.
“Although I must admit that last December when we were putting in 12-hour shifts even I got a bit sick of it.”
The last 12 months have witnessed weather records tumbling left, right and centre.
Last December was the coldest since 1890, this April was the warmest on record and November could follow suit. It adds up to the impression of a climate in chaos.
“There’s no doubt about it,” the forecaster agrees, “our climate patterns are pretty disrupted.
“It seems what’s happening with the sun is disrupting weather patterns around the world. We’ve had three cold winters but temperatures in Alaska and northern Canada were six degrees above average.
“If this theory about solar activity is right then we could see more colder winters in Britain.
“Climate models are then telling us our autumns will be milder and wetter and summers will eventually become hotter and drier. Add the two together and it certainly paints the picture of a more extreme climate.
“But then I think the fact it’s so widely reported these days means we’re far more aware of extreme weather than we ever were in the past.”
Given this uncertain outlook it’s perhaps understandable he is remaining cautious when it comes to predicting what will happen this winter.
He expects the weather to take a turn for the colder by the end of this week but doesn’t see a repeat of the scenes of the last three years.
“I’ve read headlines saying it will be the worst winter ever recorded but I’m not convinced. It’s very unusual to get four bad winters on the trot.
“The forecasts and balance of probability say it could be another colder than average winter but it’s very unlikely it’s going to be as severe as last winter and it could actually turn out to be a fairly normal one.”
Now that the countdown to the festive season is in full swing, the question on many people’s lips is whether we’re going to see a repeat of last year’s White Christmas in Leeds. So what does he think?
“We’re really entering Mystic Meg territory now,” he sighs good-naturedly. “I’ll stick my neck out and say no this year, but I’m just guessing.”
* Frozen Britain by Paul Hudson and Ian McCaskill is out now.
Email to a friend
Print this page
Looking for...
Featured advertisers
Jobs
Search for a job
Motors
Search for a car
Property
Search for a house
Weather for Leeds
Saturday 26 May 2012
Today
Sunny
Temperature: 8 C to 21 C
Wind Speed: 17 mph
Wind direction: East
Tomorrow
Sunny
Temperature: 9 C to 22 C
Wind Speed: 13 mph
Wind direction: East
Comments
There are 1 comments to this article
Page 1 of 1
Nigel B
Monday, November 28, 2011 at 10:04 PMIf Paul is right about a low solar minimum, called the "Dalton minimum", why was 2010 the warmest year on record globally? During our fairly cold winters, the planet has still been warming. Surely its more about just getting a different weather pattern, than low solar output?
Page 1 of 1
Your view
Please sign in to be able to comment on this story.