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Jayne Dawson: The truth is out there
Another summer, another conspiracy theory. This time it's about Dr David Kelly, the unfortunate man whose job it was to be a weapons inspector in Iraq.
As that war loomed in 2003, Dr Kelly talked to journalists about his belief that the threat from Iraq, then ruled by Saddam Hussein, was being exaggerated by the British government. He expected to do this anonymously but his identity became known.
Dr Kelly then found himself at the centre of what is now known as "a media storm" and the consequence was that he took his own life.
Or did he?
I believe he did. Everything points that way, from the pathologist who described his death as a textbook suicide, to the fact that Dr Kelly, a previously private and respected man, found his entire world collapsing around him.
Who knows what they would do if they suddenly believed they were about to lose their reputation, their job, their pension and their future prospects? The best we can hope for is that we never have to find out.
But now I'm just being a bit of a spoilsport, I know, because facts should never be allowed to get in the way of a good conspiracy theory.
Conspiracy theories have nothing whatsoever to do with facts, because they are not so much based on rational argument as a belief system.
It's a bit like religion – the fact that there is no rational basis to your belief, that nothing can ever be proved, that you continue to believe against all evidence to the contrary is not a problem – because it just means you have faith.
So every summer conspiracy theorists are in their element because, as the sun comes out, so do the theories, and the nation divides into the believers and the killjoys. Like me.
But I'm not totally immune to a good theory, though I prefer it when they are about alien land-ings, or alien abductions or clever alien corn patterns being created in irate farmers' fields rather than real, unhappy people.
But here is my argument as to why conspiracy theories are never true. If you are a believer, look away now. On second thoughts, don't bother. Nothing is going to dissuade you from your crazy beliefs, so you might as well stick with me.
Here it is. The one, big reason why conspiracy theories are never true.
Because people talk.
Think about it, go on, just for a minute. Think about your family, think about the place where you work, think about your friends.
Hotbeds of gossip, each and every one.
We humans, we just can't help it. We are hardwired to talk to each other, to pass on information, to share what we know, to bond over a secret – that gets passed on, and on, and on.
And when we're not sharing and bonding and talking, we are arguing and disagreeing and changing our minds, and getting generally fed up with each other. The result is that no group of people ever agrees on one course of action without someone, at some stage, breaking ranks. Ever.
So, let's talk about the moon. Let's take that one conspiracy theory which is at present dormant, but could flare up any summer, and think about it.
This theory goes that men did not walk on the moon at all. Where they actually did that funny moon walking was on a bit of empty desert at night. And the reason clever people cottoned on to this enormous scam is that, in the film of the momentous moment, there are flags fluttering – which is a dead giveaway because everybody knows there is no atmosphere on the moon.
Here's the thing. I don't know why those flags are fluttering, I don't even know if they are fluttering. But it doesn't matter.
All anyone needs to know is this: if a group of people came together more than 40 years ago to practise a deception on such a grand scale, to pretend that people had walked on the moon when in fact they had only walked on a bit of sand down the road, we would know by now. Because somebody would have talked. Somebody would have confessed, coughed, sung like a canary.
It simply is not humanly possible for a group of people to keep a secret that big for all those decades without somebody cracking and giving the game away. So it didn't happen.
As with the moon, so with other theories. there were no post mortems on aliens who crashlanded at Roswell, New Mexico, because someone would have leaked the report by now; 9/11 wasn't planned by the American government or a back office person would have yelled the news; Princess Diana wasn't murdered and neither was Marilyn Monroe and neither was John F Kennedy – because all would have been revealed by now.
I'm not saying don't invent them. A good conspiracy theory on a silly topic can add considerably to the gaiety of the nation, and can enliven the days of people who lead really boring lives. But best not to believe them. Unless of course you know something...
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Weather for Leeds
Saturday 11 February 2012
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