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Leeds: Swine flu death 'toll' downgraded
Deaths from a swine flu pandemic in Leeds could be far fewer than feared.
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Health bosses planning for the second wave of the infection have altered their figures according to new predictions from the Government.
They now say that as a worst case scenario, 30 per cent of the Leeds population – 240,000 people – would catch swine flu during a 15-week wave of the pandemic.
Around 15 per cent of patients would have complications and a maximum of two per cent would need to go into hospital.
The death rate has been estimated at 0.1 to 0.35 per cent of cases, equalling 240 to 840 deaths over the wave.
Previous estimates from the Leeds Flu Plan – written before the pandemic began – put possible deaths as high as 10,000.
Dr Ian Cameron, director of public health for NHS Leeds, said 240 deaths was around the same as in a particularly bad year for normal seasonal flu.
However, he told visitors at the organisation's annual meeting: "What we don't know is whether this is going to be on top of the usual seasonal flu or instead of.
"But I can give you an absolute assurance there's a huge amount of work
going on."
He said with normal seasonal flu there were usually around 100 to 300 deaths a year in Leeds.
A revised NHS Leeds Swine Flu plan has been drawn up and the organisation has also drawn up a Statement of Readiness about what it is doing.
Dr Cameron said ongoing work ranged from talking to funeral directors to running sessions on flu for staff.
He said challenges included uncertainty about the development of the
illness, planning for Anti-Viral Collection Points currently at Seacroft Hospital and at five pharmacies, as well as how vaccinations will work.
Vaccinations are expected to start next month with those most at risk, believed to be about 87,000 people in Leeds, given priority. Also due to be given the jab first are pregnant women, close contacts of those with poor immune systems and vulnerable people over 65.
Frontline health and social care workers in the city – totalling around 39,000 – would also be prioritised.
The Government has committed to buying enough vaccine for the whole population.
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Sunday 05 February 2012
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