Rarely have Leeds United flinched during their trek from base camp some 15 points away from the foot of League One, but the club's view of the division's plateau was dangerously obscured until Dougie Freedman cleared the blizzard with a ray of sunshine last night.

Trailing by two goals in a scenario where fine margins carry a high price, it was the most elderly member of Gary McAllister's climbing party who held the safety rope fast as United's feet slipped beneath them.

Freedman's scuffed shot was United's pick-axe in the ice at the very moment when the ravine seemed to have opened beneath them.

Fully 95 minutes had been and gone when the striker did what poachers do and swept up the rebound from a direct and desperate approach to Carlisle's goal.

McAllister argued that a deficit of two goals would not have proved automatically fatal for his players or their season, but it is better for him that he is not asked to find out.

The play-offs are notoriously unpredictable and impervious to confidence, and the first leg of the semi-final between Leeds and Carlisle last night was a perfect illustration of a competition which is never a closed shop.

Leeds arrived at kick-off as the form horse, as McAllister likes to put it, while Carlisle's impression of an also-ran was no less convincing, but the concept of form was summarily dismissed by a game which the visitors deservedly won, almost convincingly.

Without the instinctive shot which Freedman slipped past Keiren Westwood – the only moment when Leeds were able to better Carlisle's trustworthy goalkeeper – United would present themselves for the return leg at Brunton Park on Thursday night with a noose round their neck and unstable chair beneath their feet.

At an inhospitable ground where 17 clubs have fallen foul this season – Leeds included – the task of negating a 2-0 lead may have been less achievable in reality than it was in McAllister's theory.

With only one goal between the teams the tie is as delicately balanced as ever it was.